Alaves 2-2 Girona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alaves at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alaves vs Girona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alaves host Girona at Estadio Mendizorrotza in La Liga, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 23 February 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Alaves have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Alaves have posted 4W 2D 4L at Estadio Mendizorrotza — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Girona stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Girona away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Girona — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Alaves register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Girona in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Alaves, 3 for Girona and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Girona winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Alaves in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Girona in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 50% versus Girona 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 39% | Girona 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.11 xG and Girona 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.784 / defence 1.005 | Girona attack 0.934 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.128. Alaves's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 62 Alaves games / 62 Girona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 35% | Draw 32% | Girona 33%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Girona 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alaves at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Girona (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. This conflicts with form data: Alaves 60% | Girona 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza • Kick-off: Monday 23 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 35% | Draw 32% | Girona 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Alaves 1.11 / Girona 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.784 / def 1.005 | Girona attack 0.934 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Alaves (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Girona xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Girona kick off?
Alaves vs Girona kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 23 February 2026 at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Girona?
Alaves 2 - 2 Girona.
Where is Alaves vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
What competition is Alaves vs Girona part of?
Alaves vs Girona is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 35% chance of winning, Girona a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Alaves and Girona will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Girona?
Record (5 meetings): Alaves 1W | Draws 1 | Girona 3W.
What form are Alaves and Girona in?
Alaves (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Girona (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Alaves's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Girona's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Girona's attack versus Alaves's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
35%
2.84
32%
3.13
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.17
1.06
Girona xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
12%
8.17
11%
9.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 12.1 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Alaves and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Alaves and 1.06 for Girona, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alaves's recent record stands at 17W 17D 28L from 62 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Girona, meanwhile, have gone 18W 16D 28L across 62 games — 1.13 PPG, with W-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Girona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alaves on 1.10 PPG, Girona on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Alaves have managed 11W 9D 11L from 31 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Girona's away record stands at 7W 9D 15L across 31 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Alaves are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 1.10 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 62 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Blended
Girona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Girona in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 17W 17D 28L in their last 62 games (1.10 PPG), while Girona have gone 18W 16D 28L in their last 62 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Girona away?
Alaves's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.35 PPG; Girona away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alaves and Girona runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Dec 2023, when Girona won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alaves's record when hosting Girona specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Alaves
2
Draws
3
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Girona?
From 6 meetings on record, Alaves have won 1, Girona have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Girona last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Alaves 2-2 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Girona?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alaves see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 45%, Girona 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Alaves) and 45% (Girona).
On the defensive side: Alaves have failed to score in 36% of games; Girona in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Girona?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Alaves's recent matches and 58% of Girona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Girona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Alaves's recent games and 45% of Girona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Girona tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Girona in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alaves and Girona share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Regular Season - 25, as Alaves and Girona drew 2-2 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.11 xG and Girona 1.06 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Alaves beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Girona outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.78 / defence 1.00 against Girona attack 0.93 / defence 0.93, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 35% | Draw 32% | Girona 33%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 39%, Girona 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Girona's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alaves 1.10 PPG, Girona 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Girona (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.