Alaves 1-1 Getafe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Alaves take on Getafe.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Getafe make the trip to Estadio de Mendizorroza to face Alaves in La Liga, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 December 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Current Form
Alaves's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alaves's home record at Estadio de Mendizorroza: 3W 0D 5L from 8 La Liga appearances (1.12 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game.
Getafe have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Getafe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Getafe's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 5L across 8 road games this term (0.38 PPG). Away from home they average 0.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.38 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Alaves against 1.10 for Getafe. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Alaves — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Getafe — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 40% versus Getafe 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alaves 40% | Getafe 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 0.85 xG and Getafe 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.771 / defence 1.150 | Getafe attack 0.484 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.009 / away 1.146. Alaves's attack strength of 0.771 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 Alaves games / 16 Getafe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 37% | Draw 38% | Getafe 25%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.70 | Draw 2.63 | Getafe 4.00. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 19% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.49. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 81% probability — total xG of 1.49 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Getafe's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 25% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 19% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 28% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Alaves 38% | Getafe 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Getafe | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 37% | Draw 38% | Getafe 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 19% | BTTS 28% | xG Alaves 0.85 / Getafe 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.771 / def 1.150 | Getafe attack 0.484 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.009 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Getafe xG
28%
BTTS
45%
Over 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Getafe kick off?
Alaves vs Getafe kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Getafe?
Alaves 1 - 1 Getafe.
Where is Alaves vs Getafe being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Getafe part of?
Alaves vs Getafe is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Getafe?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 37% chance of winning, Getafe a 25% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Getafe?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Alaves and Getafe will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Getafe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 19%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Getafe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Alaves and Getafe in?
Alaves (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Getafe (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Alaves's attack rating (0.77) and Getafe's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Getafe's attack (0.48x) against Alaves's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from 15/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 24.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.6%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 56% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
37%
2.68
38%
2.63
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
22.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
19.2%
Home win
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Alaves xG
Total xG
1.49
0.64
Getafe xG
2.68
37%
Home win
2.63
38%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
44%
Over 1.5
2.27
56%
Under 1.5
1.79
19%
Over 2.5
5.26
81%
Under 2.5
1.23
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.60
72%
BTTS No
1.38
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
20%
5.07
11%
9.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.6 | 14.4 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 19.2 | 12.2 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Getafe?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 24.2%.
How many goals are Alaves and Getafe expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Alaves and 0.64 for Getafe, a combined total of 1.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Getafe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 15 outings, Alaves have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 4W 2D 9L record — D-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Getafe's form line: 2W 5D 8L from 15 games, 0.73 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-D. The sample for Getafe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.93 PPG for Alaves against 0.73 for Getafe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Alaves have posted 1.29 PPG from 7 outings (3W 0D 4L).
On the road, Getafe have gone 0W 3D 4L from 7 away games — 0.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alaves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Alaves are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Getafe are on 0.67 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 15 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Blended
Getafe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Getafe in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 4W 2D 9L in their last 15 games (0.93 PPG), while Getafe have gone 2W 5D 8L in their last 15 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Getafe away?
Alaves's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.29 PPG; Getafe away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alaves have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Getafe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Alaves
3
Draws
4
Getafe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Getafe?
From 8 meetings on record, Alaves have won 1, Getafe have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Getafe last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Alaves 0-2 Getafe.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Getafe?
Getafe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Alaves see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Getafe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 29% (Alaves) and 29% (Getafe) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Alaves and 29% for Getafe.
On the defensive side: Alaves have failed to score in 43% of games; Getafe in 71%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Getafe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Getafe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Alaves's recent matches and 29% of Getafe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Getafe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Alaves's recent games and 29% of Getafe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Getafe tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Getafe in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alaves and Getafe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alaves and Getafe finished level at 1-1 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 17, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 0.85 xG and Getafe 0.64 xG, a combined 1.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.77 / defence 1.15 against Getafe attack 0.48 / defence 1.09, drawn from 15/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 37% | Draw 38% | Getafe 25%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 19%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 45% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 40%, Getafe 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Getafe's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alaves 0.93 PPG, Getafe 0.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.