Alaves 3-0 Getafe – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Alaves at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alaves vs Getafe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Getafe make the trip to Estadio Mendizorrotza to face Alaves in La Liga, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Alaves's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Alaves haven't played a La Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Alaves's home record at Estadio Mendizorrotza: 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Getafe have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Getafe haven't played a La Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Getafe's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Alaves against 1.60 for Getafe. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Getafe hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 8 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 0–2 with Getafe winning.
It is worth noting that Getafe have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Alaves — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Getafe — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 63% versus Getafe 29%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alaves 50% | Getafe 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.27 xG and Getafe 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.949 / defence 1.109 | Getafe attack 0.876 / defence 0.831. League average goals — home 1.617 / away 1.119. Data: 38 Alaves games / 38 Getafe games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Alaves 41% | Draw 28% | Getafe 32%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Getafe 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alaves are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alaves if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Alaves 80% | Getafe 30%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Getafe | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Aug 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 41% | Draw 28% | Getafe 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Alaves 1.27 / Getafe 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.949 / def 1.109 | Getafe attack 0.876 / def 0.831 | league avg home 1.617 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Alaves (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Getafe xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Getafe kick off?
Alaves vs Getafe kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 15 August 2026 at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Getafe?
Alaves 3 - 0 Getafe.
Where is Alaves vs Getafe being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
What competition is Alaves vs Getafe part of?
Alaves vs Getafe is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Getafe?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 41% chance of winning, Getafe a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Getafe?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Alaves and Getafe will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Getafe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Getafe?
Record (8 meetings): Alaves 1W | Draws 3 | Getafe 4W.
What form are Alaves and Getafe in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Alaves (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Alaves's attack rating (0.95) and Getafe's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Getafe's attack (0.88x) against Alaves's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
41%
2.46
28%
3.60
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.36
1.09
Getafe xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
14%
7.29
9%
11.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.2 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Getafe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Alaves and Getafe expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Alaves and 1.09 for Getafe, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Getafe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Alaves have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 11W 10D 17L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. Alaves haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Getafe's form line: 15W 6D 17L from 38 games, 1.34 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W. Getafe haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Alaves against 1.34 for Getafe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Alaves have posted 1.42 PPG from 19 outings (7W 6D 6L).
On the road, Getafe have gone 7W 3D 9L from 19 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Alaves are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Getafe are on 0.84 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alaves have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Getafe in 29%.
Last 38 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Pre-Season
Getafe
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Getafe in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 11W 10D 17L in their last 38 games (1.13 PPG), while Getafe have gone 15W 6D 17L in their last 38 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Getafe away?
Alaves's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.42 PPG; Getafe away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Alaves or Getafe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alaves have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Getafe in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Alaves won 3-0 on 15 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alaves have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Getafe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Alaves
3
Draws
4
Getafe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Getafe?
From 9 meetings on record, Alaves have won 2, Getafe have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Getafe last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Alaves 3-0 Getafe.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Getafe?
Getafe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Getafe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 74%, Getafe 26% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Alaves) and 32% (Getafe).
On the defensive side: Getafe in 32%; Getafe in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Getafe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Getafe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 74% of Alaves's recent matches and 26% of Getafe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Getafe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Alaves's recent games and 32% of Getafe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Getafe tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Getafe in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Alaves run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Getafe.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alaves beat Getafe 3-0 at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Regular Season - 1, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.27 xG and Getafe 1.09 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Alaves beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Getafe landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.95 / defence 1.11 against Getafe attack 0.88 / defence 0.83, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 41% | Draw 28% | Getafe 32%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 50%, Getafe 26%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Getafe's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alaves 1.13 PPG, Getafe 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alaves win broke the near-deadlock. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Getafe (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.