Alaves 1-0 Getafe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alaves at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Alaves face Getafe.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Getafe make the trip to Estadio de Mendizorroza to face Alaves in La Liga (matchday 37). The match kicks off on Saturday 18 May 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Current Form
Alaves's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Alaves's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Getafe have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Getafe's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Alaves against 0.90 for Getafe. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Alaves, 1 for Getafe and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Aug 2023, ended Alaves 0–1 Getafe — a Getafe win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Alaves — key trading statistics (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Getafe — key trading statistics (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 36% versus Getafe 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alaves 31% | Getafe 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.38 xG and Getafe 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.943 / defence 0.951 | Getafe attack 0.940 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.102. Data: built from Alaves's last 36 games and Getafe's last 74.
Result probabilities: Alaves 46% | Draw 27% | Getafe 27%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.17 | Draw 3.68 | Getafe 3.73. Alaves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alaves are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alaves if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Alaves 40% (last 10 home games) | Getafe 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Getafe | Competition: La Liga, matchday 37 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 46% | Draw 27% | Getafe 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Alaves 1.38 / Getafe 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.943 / def 0.951 | Getafe attack 0.940 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Alaves (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Getafe xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Alaves vs Getafe FAQs
What time does Alaves vs Getafe kick off?
Alaves vs Getafe kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Saturday 18 May 2024 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Getafe?
Alaves 1 - 0 Getafe.
Where is Alaves vs Getafe being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Getafe part of?
Alaves vs Getafe is a La Liga fixture (matchday 37) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Getafe?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 46% chance of winning, Getafe a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Getafe?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Alaves and Getafe will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Alaves vs Getafe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Alaves's attack rating (0.94) and Getafe's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Getafe's attack (0.94x) against Alaves's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from Alaves's last 36 games and Getafe's last 74 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
46%
2.17
27%
3.68
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.37
0.98
Getafe xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
17%
5.82
7%
14.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.8 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Alaves vs Getafe Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Getafe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Alaves and Getafe expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Alaves and 0.98 for Getafe, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Getafe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 36 outings, Alaves have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 11W 9D 16L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Getafe's form line: 10W 13D 13L from 36 games, 1.19 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Alaves against 1.19 for Getafe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Alaves have posted 1.56 PPG from their last 18 home games (8W 4D 6L).
On the road, Getafe have gone 2W 8D 8L from their last 18 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Getafe's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alaves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Alaves are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Getafe are on 1.14 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Current Season
Getafe
Current Season
Alaves (Home) vs Getafe (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Alaves
Current Season
Getafe
Current Season
❓ Alaves vs Getafe Form FAQs
What form are Alaves and Getafe in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 11W 9D 16L in their last 36 games (1.17 PPG), while Getafe have gone 10W 13D 13L in their last 36 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Getafe away?
Alaves's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.56 PPG; Getafe away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Alaves and Getafe, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Alaves won Alaves 3-0 Getafe on 15 Aug 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alaves have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Getafe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Alaves
3
Draws
4
Getafe
Recent Meetings
❓ Alaves vs Getafe H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Getafe?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Alaves have won 2, Getafe have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Getafe last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Alaves 3-0 Getafe.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Getafe?
Getafe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Getafe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 39%, Getafe 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Alaves) and 56% (Getafe).
On the defensive side: Alaves keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Alaves have failed to score in 28% of games; Getafe in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Getafe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Alaves vs Getafe Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Alaves and Getafe matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Alaves's recent matches and 56% of Getafe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Alaves and Getafe matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Alaves's recent games and 56% of Getafe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Getafe matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Alaves's recent matches and 89% of Getafe's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Alaves edge out Getafe 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alaves beat Getafe 1-0 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 37, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.38 xG and Getafe 0.98 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Getafe landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.94 / defence 0.95 against Getafe attack 0.94 / defence 1.04, drawn from 36/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 46% | Draw 27% | Getafe 27%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 31%, Getafe 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not.
Getafe's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alaves 1.17 PPG, Getafe 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alaves win broke the near-deadlock. Alaves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Getafe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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