Alaves 0-2 Athletic Club – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Alaves at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alaves vs Athletic Club fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alaves host Athletic Club at Estadio de Mendizorroza in La Liga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 22 September 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Alaves — All Games: 2W 0D 3L from 5 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Alaves have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all La Liga games this season, Athletic Club have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Athletic Club have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Athletic Club have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Alaves 1.20 PPG, Athletic Club 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Alaves, 1 for Athletic Club and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 9 Jan 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Alaves trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
Athletic Club trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Alaves 20% | Athletic Club 20%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alaves 20% | Athletic Club 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.31 xG and Athletic Club 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 1.090 / defence 1.154 | Athletic Club attack 0.945 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.184. Data: 5 Alaves games / 43 Athletic Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 37% | Draw 26% | Athletic Club 36%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Athletic Club 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alaves at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: Alaves 20% | Athletic Club 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Athletic Club | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Friday 22 Sep 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 37% | Draw 26% | Athletic Club 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Alaves 1.31 / Athletic Club 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 1.090 / def 1.154 | Athletic Club attack 0.945 / def 0.803 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Alaves (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Athletic Club xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Athletic Club kick off?
Alaves vs Athletic Club kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 22 September 2023 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Athletic Club?
Alaves 0 - 2 Athletic Club.
Where is Alaves vs Athletic Club being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Athletic Club part of?
Alaves vs Athletic Club is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Athletic Club?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 37% chance of winning, Athletic Club a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Athletic Club?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Alaves and Athletic Club will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Athletic Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Athletic Club?
Record (2 meetings): Alaves 0W | Draws 1 | Athletic Club 1W.
What form are Alaves and Athletic Club in?
Alaves (all comps): 2W-0D-3L in 5 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Athletic Club (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Alaves's attack rating (1.09) and Athletic Club's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Athletic Club's attack versus Alaves's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
37%
2.68
26%
3.79
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.60
1.29
Athletic Club xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
10%
9.75
10%
10.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.5 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Athletic Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Alaves and Athletic Club expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Alaves and 1.29 for Athletic Club, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Athletic Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alaves's recent record stands at 2W 0D 3L from 5 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Alaves, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Athletic Club, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 1L across 5 games — 2.00 PPG, with L-W-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Athletic Club, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Athletic Club by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Alaves heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Alaves are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Athletic Club are on 1.80 scored and 0.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alaves have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games; Athletic Club in 20%.
Defensively: Athletic Club in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Early Season
Athletic Club
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Athletic Club in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 games (1.20 PPG), while Athletic Club have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 (2.00 PPG).
Have Alaves or Athletic Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alaves have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Athletic Club in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alaves and Athletic Club runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Alaves's record when hosting Athletic Club specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Alaves
2
Draws
5
Athletic Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Athletic Club?
From 8 meetings on record, Alaves have won 1, Athletic Club have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Athletic Club last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Alaves 2-4 Athletic Club.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Athletic Club?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Athletic Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Alaves 20% BTTS, Athletic Club 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Alaves and 40% for Athletic Club.
On the defensive side: Athletic Club in 60%; Alaves have failed to score in 60% of games; Athletic Club in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Athletic Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Athletic Club?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Alaves's recent matches and 20% of Athletic Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Athletic Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Alaves's recent games and 40% of Athletic Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Athletic Club tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Athletic Club in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Athletic Club cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Alaves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Athletic Club beat Alaves 0-2 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 6, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.31 xG and Athletic Club 1.29 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Alaves fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 1.09 / defence 1.15 against Athletic Club attack 0.94 / defence 0.80, drawn from 5/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 37% | Draw 26% | Athletic Club 36%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Athletic Club win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 20%, Athletic Club 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 20%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Athletic Club's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Alaves managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Athletic Club conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.