Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon Bluewings meet at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 April 2023 at 06:00 UTC.
Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium: 7W 1D 2L from 10 K League 1 appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Ulsan Hyundai FC are significantly better at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Suwon Bluewings's overall K League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Suwon Bluewings have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Ulsan Hyundai FC have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Suwon Bluewings in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 2 for Suwon Bluewings and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Sep 2022, ended 1–0 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Ulsan Hyundai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Suwon Bluewings goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 59% versus Suwon Bluewings 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 57% | Suwon Bluewings 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.76 xG and Suwon Bluewings 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.221 / defence 0.879 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.962 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.133. Data: 38 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 38 Suwon Bluewings games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 53% | Draw 30% | Suwon Bluewings 17%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.89 | Draw 3.33 | Suwon Bluewings 5.88. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% | Suwon Bluewings 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Apr 2023, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 53% | Draw 30% | Suwon Bluewings 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.76 / Suwon Bluewings 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.221 / def 0.879 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.962 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Suwon Bluewings xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 06:00 on Saturday 8 April 2023 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 2 - 1 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 53% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 17% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon Bluewings will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Record (7 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 3W | Draws 2 | Suwon Bluewings 2W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon Bluewings in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Suwon Bluewings's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. Flip it around — Suwon Bluewings's attack (0.96x) against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
53%
1.89
30%
3.32
17%
5.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.71
0.96
Suwon Bluewings xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
5.86
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
17%
5.79
Win to Nil
20%
4.94
3%
33.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.1 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 0.96 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 76 outings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have picked up 1.97 PPG on a 43W 21D 12L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Suwon Bluewings's form line: 22W 22D 32L from 76 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the form team by 0.81 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Suwon Bluewings.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 2.21 PPG from 38 outings (25W 9D 4L).
On the road, Suwon Bluewings have gone 12W 9D 17L from 38 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 0.99 conceded per game recently; Suwon Bluewings are on 1.13 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Suwon Bluewings
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon Bluewings in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 43W 21D 12L in their last 76 games (1.97 PPG), while Suwon Bluewings have gone 22W 22D 32L in their last 76 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Suwon Bluewings away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.21 PPG; Suwon Bluewings away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Suwon Bluewings been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Suwon Bluewings in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 July 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Suwon Bluewings won 3-0 on 18 Apr 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Suwon Bluewings — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2
Draws
3
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon Bluewings?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, Suwon Bluewings have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
They last met on 15 July 2023, when Suwon Bluewings 3-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%, Suwon Bluewings 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 47% (Suwon Bluewings).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Suwon Bluewings in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Suwon Bluewings?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent matches and 42% of Suwon Bluewings's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent games and 47% of Suwon Bluewings's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon Bluewings tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Suwon Bluewings in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out Suwon Bluewings 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Suwon Bluewings 2-1 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.76 xG and Suwon Bluewings 0.96 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.22 / defence 0.88 against Suwon Bluewings attack 0.96 / defence 1.01, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 53% | Draw 30% | Suwon Bluewings 17%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%, Suwon Bluewings 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.