Ulsan Hyundai FC 0-0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Gimcheon Sangmu FC travel to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium to take on Ulsan Hyundai FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 February 2022, 07:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ulsan Hyundai FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Ulsan Hyundai FC are significantly better at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.41 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.091 / defence 0.991 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.179. Data: 33 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 46% | Draw 27% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.70. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Feb 2022, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 46% | Draw 27% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.41 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.091 / def 0.991 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 20 February 2022 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 0 - 0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 46% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Ulsan Hyundai FC home split: 2.50 PPG from 10 | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
46%
2.15
27%
3.71
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.40
0.99
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
7%
15.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.7 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 0.99 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Pre-Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 5 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2025, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Gimcheon Sangmu FC specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
3
Draws
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2026, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Ulsan Hyundai FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC finished level at 0-0 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.41 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.99 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Gimcheon Sangmu FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.09 / defence 0.99 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 33/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 46% | Draw 27% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 27%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.