Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC host Jeonbuk Motors at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 August 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ulsan Hyundai FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jeonbuk Motors stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 K League 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Jeonbuk Motors, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jeonbuk Motors away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ulsan Hyundai FC at 1.90 PPG versus Jeonbuk Motors's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games).
Jeonbuk Motors in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 61% versus Jeonbuk Motors 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 59% | Jeonbuk Motors 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.80 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.377 / defence 1.094 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.953 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.140. Ulsan Hyundai FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.377 — their λ of 1.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 59 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 59 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 51% | Draw 25% | Jeonbuk Motors 24%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Jeonbuk Motors 4.17. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ulsan Hyundai FC 90% | Jeonbuk Motors 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Aug 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 51% | Draw 25% | Jeonbuk Motors 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.80 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.377 / def 1.094 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.953 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Jeonbuk Motors xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 1 - 0 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 51% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (1.38x league average) is weighed against Jeonbuk Motors's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. The same calculation in reverse, Jeonbuk Motors's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
51%
1.97
25%
3.99
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.99
1.19
Jeonbuk Motors xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
15%
6.46
4%
25.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.8 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.19 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent record stands at 40W 13D 11L from 64 games, a 2.08 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Ulsan Hyundai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jeonbuk Motors, meanwhile, have gone 33W 15D 16L across 64 games — 1.78 PPG, with D-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Jeonbuk Motors is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ulsan Hyundai FC on 2.08 PPG, Jeonbuk Motors on 1.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ulsan Hyundai FC have managed 21W 6D 4L from 31 games — 2.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jeonbuk Motors's away record stands at 16W 5D 10L across 31 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.39 scored and 0.92 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Ulsan Hyundai FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Blended
Jeonbuk Motors
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 40W 13D 11L in their last 64 games (2.08 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 33W 15D 16L in their last 64 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.23 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Jeonbuk Motors been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Jeonbuk Motors in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Jeonbuk Motors go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Jeonbuk Motors specifically: 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ulsan Hyundai FC
1
Draws
5
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4, Jeonbuk Motors have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-3 Jeonbuk Motors.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Jeonbuk Motors are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 71%, Jeonbuk Motors 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 52% for Jeonbuk Motors. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Jeonbuk Motors?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 48% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's matches and 52% of Jeonbuk Motors's.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Jeonbuk Motors in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out Jeonbuk Motors 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Jeonbuk Motors 1-0 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.80 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.19 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ulsan Hyundai FC fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Jeonbuk Motors landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.38 / defence 1.09 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.95 / defence 0.94, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 51% | Draw 25% | Jeonbuk Motors 24%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 59%, Jeonbuk Motors 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.08 PPG, Jeonbuk Motors 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ulsan Hyundai FC win broke the near-deadlock. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.