Suwon Bluewings 2-2 Daejeon Citizen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon Bluewings at 37%, yet in-form Daejeon Citizen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Suwon Bluewings vs Daejeon Citizen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Suwon Bluewings host Daejeon Citizen at Suwon World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Relegation Round - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 October 2023 at 05:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Suwon Bluewings — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Suwon Bluewings's home record at Suwon World Cup Stadium: 3W 2D 5L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Daejeon Citizen have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Daejeon Citizen have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Daejeon Citizen's 1.30 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Suwon Bluewings's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Suwon Bluewings have won 0, Daejeon Citizen 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 1–3 with Daejeon Citizen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Suwon Bluewings in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Daejeon Citizen in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon Bluewings 53% versus Daejeon Citizen 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon Bluewings 44% | Daejeon Citizen 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon Bluewings 1.17 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.748 / defence 0.970 | Daejeon Citizen attack 0.989 / defence 1.272. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.130. Suwon Bluewings's attack strength of 0.748 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Daejeon Citizen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.272 — this is suppressing Suwon Bluewings's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Suwon Bluewings games / 33 Daejeon Citizen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 37% | Draw 30% | Daejeon Citizen 33%. Fair-value odds: Suwon Bluewings 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Daejeon Citizen 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Suwon Bluewings as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Daejeon Citizen (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon Bluewings offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Suwon Bluewings 30% | Daejeon Citizen 70%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon Bluewings vs Daejeon Citizen | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 37% | Draw 30% | Daejeon Citizen 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Suwon Bluewings 1.17 / Daejeon Citizen 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.748 / def 0.970 | Daejeon Citizen attack 0.989 / def 1.272 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Suwon Bluewings (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Suwon Bluewings xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Daejeon Citizen xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon Bluewings vs Daejeon Citizen kick off?
Suwon Bluewings vs Daejeon Citizen kicked off at 05:00 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon Bluewings vs Daejeon Citizen?
Suwon Bluewings 2 - 2 Daejeon Citizen.
Where is Suwon Bluewings vs Daejeon Citizen being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon Bluewings vs Daejeon Citizen part of?
Suwon Bluewings vs Daejeon Citizen is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon Bluewings vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our statistical model gives Suwon Bluewings a 37% chance of winning, Daejeon Citizen a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Suwon Bluewings the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon Bluewings vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Suwon Bluewings and Daejeon Citizen will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon Bluewings vs Daejeon Citizen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Daejeon Citizen?
Record (3 meetings): Suwon Bluewings 0W | Draws 1 | Daejeon Citizen 2W.
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Daejeon Citizen in?
Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Suwon Bluewings's attack at 0.75x the league average against Daejeon Citizen's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Daejeon Citizen's attack versus Suwon Bluewings's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon Bluewings Win
37%
2.68
30%
3.35
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Suwon Bluewings xG
Total xG
2.26
1.08
Daejeon Citizen xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
13%
7.92
10%
9.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.3 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon Bluewings vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Suwon Bluewings and Daejeon Citizen expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Suwon Bluewings and 1.08 for Daejeon Citizen, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon Bluewings vs Daejeon Citizen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Suwon Bluewings have picked up 0.81 PPG on a 7W 8D 21L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Daejeon Citizen's form line: 13W 13D 10L from 36 games, 1.44 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-D.
Put side by side, Daejeon Citizen are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Suwon Bluewings.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Suwon Bluewings have posted 0.83 PPG from 18 outings (4W 3D 11L).
On the road, Daejeon Citizen have gone 4W 8D 6L from 18 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Suwon Bluewings are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Daejeon Citizen are on 1.56 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Daejeon Citizen in 64%.
Last 36 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon Bluewings
Current Season
Daejeon Citizen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Daejeon Citizen in coming into this match?
Suwon Bluewings have gone 7W 8D 21L in their last 36 games (0.81 PPG), while Daejeon Citizen have gone 13W 13D 10L in their last 36 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon Bluewings at home or Daejeon Citizen away?
Daejeon Citizen's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon Bluewings at home: 0.83 PPG; Daejeon Citizen away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Suwon Bluewings and Daejeon Citizen runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Suwon Bluewings's record when hosting Daejeon Citizen specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Suwon Bluewings
2
Draws
2
Daejeon Citizen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Daejeon Citizen?
From 4 meetings on record, Suwon Bluewings have won 0, Daejeon Citizen have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Suwon Bluewings and Daejeon Citizen last play each other?
They last met on 29 October 2023, when Suwon Bluewings 2-2 Daejeon Citizen.
Who has won more matches between Suwon Bluewings and Daejeon Citizen?
Daejeon Citizen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon Bluewings 44%, Daejeon Citizen 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Suwon Bluewings) and 56% (Daejeon Citizen).
On the defensive side: Suwon Bluewings have failed to score in 44% of games; Daejeon Citizen in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon Bluewings home games / Daejeon Citizen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon Bluewings play Daejeon Citizen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Suwon Bluewings's games and 67% of Daejeon Citizen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon Bluewings vs Daejeon Citizen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Suwon Bluewings's recent games and 56% of Daejeon Citizen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suwon Bluewings and Daejeon Citizen tend to score early?
Suwon Bluewings have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Daejeon Citizen in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Suwon Bluewings and Daejeon Citizen share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Relegation Round - 2, as Suwon Bluewings and Daejeon Citizen drew 2-2 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon Bluewings 1.17 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.08 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Suwon Bluewings beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Daejeon Citizen outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon Bluewings attack 0.75 / defence 0.97 against Daejeon Citizen attack 0.99 / defence 1.27, drawn from 66/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon Bluewings 37% | Draw 30% | Daejeon Citizen 33%, with Suwon Bluewings to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon Bluewings 44%, Daejeon Citizen 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Daejeon Citizen arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.