Suwon Bluewings 1-1 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon Bluewings at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC meet at Suwon World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 6 July 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Suwon Bluewings have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Suwon Bluewings, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Suwon Bluewings at Suwon World Cup Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Daegu FC (all games): 3W 7D 0L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Daegu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Daegu FC have gone 0W 6D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Suwon Bluewings, 1.60 for Daegu FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Suwon Bluewings, 2 for Daegu FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2022, ended 0–3 with Daegu FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Suwon Bluewings half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Daegu FC half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon Bluewings 42% versus Daegu FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon Bluewings 44% | Daegu FC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon Bluewings 1.07 xG and Daegu FC 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.758 / defence 0.775 | Daegu FC attack 0.961 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.117. Suwon Bluewings's attack strength of 0.758 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Suwon Bluewings's defence rating of 0.775 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Suwon Bluewings games / 52 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 40% | Draw 33% | Daegu FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Suwon Bluewings 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | Daegu FC 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Suwon Bluewings are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suwon Bluewings if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.90 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates are neutral: Suwon Bluewings 30% | Daegu FC 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 Jul 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 40% | Draw 33% | Daegu FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Suwon Bluewings 1.07 / Daegu FC 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.758 / def 0.775 | Daegu FC attack 0.961 / def 1.101 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Suwon Bluewings (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Suwon Bluewings xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Daegu FC xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC kick off?
Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 6 July 2022 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC?
Suwon Bluewings 1 - 1 Daegu FC.
Where is Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC part of?
Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon Bluewings a 40% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Suwon Bluewings the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC?
Record (4 meetings): Suwon Bluewings 1W | Draws 1 | Daegu FC 2W.
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC in?
Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Daegu FC (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Suwon Bluewings's attack at 0.76x the league average against Daegu FC's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Daegu FC's attack (0.96x) against Suwon Bluewings's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon Bluewings Win
40%
2.52
33%
3.01
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Suwon Bluewings xG
Total xG
1.90
0.83
Daegu FC xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
17%
5.79
9%
10.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 12.4 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Suwon Bluewings and 0.83 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Suwon Bluewings's recent record stands at 16W 17D 24L from 57 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Suwon Bluewings is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Daegu FC, meanwhile, have gone 20W 19D 18L across 57 games — 1.39 PPG, with D-D-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Daegu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Suwon Bluewings against 1.39 for Daegu FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Suwon Bluewings have managed 8W 9D 11L from 28 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daegu FC's away record stands at 7W 10D 11L across 28 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Suwon Bluewings are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.16 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 57 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon Bluewings
Blended
Daegu FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Suwon Bluewings have gone 16W 17D 24L in their last 57 games (1.14 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 20W 19D 18L in their last 57 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon Bluewings at home or Daegu FC away?
Suwon Bluewings's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon Bluewings at home: 1.18 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Suwon Bluewings or Daegu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon Bluewings have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Daegu FC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Daegu FC won 3-0 on 8 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon Bluewings have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Daegu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Suwon Bluewings
3
Draws
5
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon Bluewings have won 2, Daegu FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 September 2023, when Suwon Bluewings 0-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon Bluewings 50%, Daegu FC 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Suwon Bluewings) and 43% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Suwon Bluewings have failed to score in 32% of games; Daegu FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon Bluewings home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon Bluewings play Daegu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Suwon Bluewings's games and 61% of Daegu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Suwon Bluewings's recent games and 43% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Suwon Bluewings have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 20, as Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC drew 1-1 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon Bluewings 1.07 xG and Daegu FC 0.83 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon Bluewings attack 0.76 / defence 0.78 against Daegu FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.10, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon Bluewings 40% | Draw 33% | Daegu FC 27%, with Suwon Bluewings to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon Bluewings 44%, Daegu FC 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Daegu FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon Bluewings 1.14 PPG, Daegu FC 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.