Suwon Bluewings 0-1 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Daegu FC at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC meet at Suwon World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 September 2023 at 08:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Suwon Bluewings have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Suwon Bluewings at Suwon World Cup Stadium this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Suwon World Cup Stadium this season.
Daegu FC (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Daegu FC have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Suwon Bluewings, 1.40 for Daegu FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Suwon Bluewings, 4 for Daegu FC and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Jul 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Suwon Bluewings half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Daegu FC half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon Bluewings 55% versus Daegu FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon Bluewings 49% | Daegu FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon Bluewings 0.99 xG and Daegu FC 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.714 / defence 1.079 | Daegu FC attack 0.936 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.151. Suwon Bluewings's attack strength of 0.714 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 62 Suwon Bluewings games / 62 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 31% | Draw 29% | Daegu FC 40%. Fair-value odds: Suwon Bluewings 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Daegu FC 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Daegu FC are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daegu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Suwon Bluewings 40% | Daegu FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Sep 2023, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 31% | Draw 29% | Daegu FC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Suwon Bluewings 0.99 / Daegu FC 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.714 / def 1.079 | Daegu FC attack 0.936 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Suwon Bluewings xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Daegu FC xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC kick off?
Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 17 September 2023 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC?
Suwon Bluewings 0 - 1 Daegu FC.
Where is Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC part of?
Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon Bluewings a 31% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC?
Record (9 meetings): Suwon Bluewings 2W | Draws 3 | Daegu FC 4W.
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC in?
Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Daegu FC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Suwon Bluewings's attack at 0.71x the league average against Daegu FC's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Daegu FC's attack (0.94x) against Suwon Bluewings's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
31%
3.24
29%
3.39
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Suwon Bluewings xG
Total xG
2.15
1.16
Daegu FC xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
10%
10.37
15%
6.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 13.5 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Suwon Bluewings and 1.16 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Suwon Bluewings's recent record stands at 16W 19D 32L from 67 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Daegu FC, meanwhile, have gone 20W 27D 20L across 67 games — 1.30 PPG, with D-L-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Suwon Bluewings against 1.30 for Daegu FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Suwon Bluewings have managed 8W 10D 16L from 34 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daegu FC's away record stands at 6W 15D 13L across 34 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Suwon Bluewings are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.25 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 67 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon Bluewings
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Suwon Bluewings have gone 16W 19D 32L in their last 67 games (1.00 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 20W 27D 20L in their last 67 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon Bluewings at home or Daegu FC away?
Suwon Bluewings's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon Bluewings at home: 1.00 PPG; Daegu FC away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Daegu FC won 3-0 on 8 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon Bluewings have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Daegu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Suwon Bluewings
3
Draws
5
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon Bluewings have won 2, Daegu FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 September 2023, when Suwon Bluewings 0-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon Bluewings 50%, Daegu FC 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Suwon Bluewings) and 50% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Suwon Bluewings have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon Bluewings home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon Bluewings play Daegu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Suwon Bluewings's games and 68% of Daegu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Suwon Bluewings's recent games and 50% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Suwon Bluewings have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Daegu FC edge out Suwon Bluewings 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Suwon Bluewings 0-1 at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon Bluewings 0.99 xG and Daegu FC 1.16 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Suwon Bluewings fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon Bluewings attack 0.71 / defence 1.08 against Daegu FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.06, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon Bluewings 31% | Draw 29% | Daegu FC 40%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon Bluewings 49%, Daegu FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (67 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Daegu FC's trading profile (67 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon Bluewings 1.00 PPG, Daegu FC 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daegu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward. Daegu FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.