Seongnam FC 2-2 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 45%, yet in-form Seongnam FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Seongnam FC vs Suwon City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Seongnam FC host Suwon City FC at Tancheon Sports Complex in K League 1, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 18 May 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Seongnam FC stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Tancheon Sports Complex, Seongnam FC have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tancheon Sports Complex.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Suwon City FC have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Suwon City FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Seongnam FC have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Seongnam FC, 2 for Suwon City FC and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2022, ended 4–3 with Seongnam FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Seongnam FC in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Suwon City FC in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Seongnam FC 45% versus Suwon City FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Seongnam FC 42% | Suwon City FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Seongnam FC 0.95 xG and Suwon City FC 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Seongnam FC attack 0.702 / defence 1.360 | Suwon City FC attack 0.846 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.146. Seongnam FC's attack strength of 0.702 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Seongnam FC games / 45 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Seongnam FC 27% | Draw 28% | Suwon City FC 45%. Fair-value odds: Seongnam FC 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Suwon City FC 2.22. Suwon City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Suwon City FC at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Seongnam FC (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Seongnam FC 40% | Suwon City FC 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Seongnam FC vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Tancheon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Wednesday 18 May 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Seongnam FC 27% | Draw 28% | Suwon City FC 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Seongnam FC 0.95 / Suwon City FC 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Seongnam FC attack 0.702 / def 1.360 | Suwon City FC attack 0.846 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.239 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Seongnam FC xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Suwon City FC xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Seongnam FC vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Seongnam FC vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 18 May 2022 at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Seongnam FC vs Suwon City FC?
Seongnam FC 2 - 2 Suwon City FC.
Where is Seongnam FC vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What competition is Seongnam FC vs Suwon City FC part of?
Seongnam FC vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Seongnam FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Seongnam FC a 27% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Seongnam FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Seongnam FC and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Seongnam FC vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Suwon City FC?
Record (4 meetings): Seongnam FC 2W | Draws 0 | Suwon City FC 2W.
What form are Seongnam FC and Suwon City FC in?
Seongnam FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Suwon City FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Seongnam FC's attack at 0.70x the league average against Suwon City FC's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon City FC's attack versus Seongnam FC's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
27%
3.70
28%
3.57
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Seongnam FC xG
Total xG
2.27
1.32
Suwon City FC xG
3.70
27%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
7%
13.83
17%
5.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 13.6 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Seongnam FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Seongnam FC and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Seongnam FC and 1.32 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Seongnam FC vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Seongnam FC's recent record stands at 11W 11D 16L from 38 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five.
Suwon City FC, meanwhile, have gone 14W 9D 15L across 38 games — 1.34 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Seongnam FC on 1.16 PPG, Suwon City FC on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Seongnam FC have managed 8W 5D 6L from 19 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Suwon City FC's away record stands at 5W 6D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Seongnam FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Seongnam FC are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.39 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC in 61%.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Seongnam FC
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Seongnam FC and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Seongnam FC have gone 11W 11D 16L in their last 38 games (1.16 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 14W 9D 15L in their last 38 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Seongnam FC at home or Suwon City FC away?
Seongnam FC's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Seongnam FC at home: 1.53 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Seongnam FC or Suwon City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Seongnam FC have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Suwon City FC in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Seongnam FC's record when hosting Suwon City FC specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Seongnam FC
1
Draws
3
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Suwon City FC?
From 7 meetings on record, Seongnam FC have won 3, Suwon City FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Seongnam FC and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 12 October 2022, when Suwon City FC 2-1 Seongnam FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Seongnam FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Suwon City FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Seongnam FC 42%, Suwon City FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Seongnam FC) and 58% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Seongnam FC keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Seongnam FC have failed to score in 26% of games; Suwon City FC in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Seongnam FC home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Seongnam FC play Suwon City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Seongnam FC's recent matches and 58% of Suwon City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Seongnam FC vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Seongnam FC's recent games and 58% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Seongnam FC and Suwon City FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tancheon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 13, as Seongnam FC and Suwon City FC drew 2-2 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Seongnam FC 0.95 xG and Suwon City FC 1.32 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Seongnam FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seongnam FC attack 0.70 / defence 1.36 against Suwon City FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.10, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Seongnam FC 27% | Draw 28% | Suwon City FC 45%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Seongnam FC 42%, Suwon City FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Seongnam FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Seongnam FC 1.16 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Seongnam FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.