Seongnam FC 1-1 Incheon United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Seongnam FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Seongnam FC vs Incheon United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tancheon Sports Complex plays host to Seongnam FC versus Incheon United in K League 1, Relegation Round - 2. Kick-off: Wednesday 3 November 2021 at 10:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Seongnam FC have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Seongnam FC have posted 4W 3D 3L at Tancheon Sports Complex — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tancheon Sports Complex.
Incheon United (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Incheon United away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Seongnam FC, 2 for Incheon United and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2021, ended 1–0 with Seongnam FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Seongnam FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Incheon United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Seongnam FC 44% versus Incheon United 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Seongnam FC 41% | Incheon United 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Seongnam FC 1.09 xG and Incheon United 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Seongnam FC attack 0.945 / defence 0.967 | Incheon United attack 0.773 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 0.939 / away 1.264. Incheon United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing Seongnam FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Seongnam FC games / 33 Incheon United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Seongnam FC 39% | Draw 30% | Incheon United 31%. Fair-value odds: Seongnam FC 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Incheon United 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Seongnam FC as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Seongnam FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Seongnam FC 50% | Incheon United 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Seongnam FC vs Incheon United | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Tancheon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 Nov 2021, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Seongnam FC 39% | Draw 30% | Incheon United 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Seongnam FC 1.09 / Incheon United 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Seongnam FC attack 0.945 / def 0.967 | Incheon United attack 0.773 / def 1.226 | league avg home 0.939 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Seongnam FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Seongnam FC xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Incheon United xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Seongnam FC vs Incheon United kick off?
Seongnam FC vs Incheon United kicked off at 10:30 on Wednesday 3 November 2021 at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Seongnam FC vs Incheon United?
Seongnam FC 1 - 1 Incheon United.
Where is Seongnam FC vs Incheon United being played?
The match is being played at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What competition is Seongnam FC vs Incheon United part of?
Seongnam FC vs Incheon United is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Seongnam FC vs Incheon United?
Our statistical model gives Seongnam FC a 39% chance of winning, Incheon United a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Seongnam FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Seongnam FC vs Incheon United?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Seongnam FC and Incheon United will score (BTTS).
Will Seongnam FC vs Incheon United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Incheon United?
Record (3 meetings): Seongnam FC 1W | Draws 0 | Incheon United 2W.
What form are Seongnam FC and Incheon United in?
Seongnam FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Incheon United (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Seongnam FC's attack rating (0.94) and Incheon United's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Incheon United's attack (0.77x) against Seongnam FC's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Seongnam FC Win
39%
2.60
30%
3.29
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Seongnam FC xG
Total xG
2.03
0.94
Incheon United xG
2.60
39%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
15%
6.68
10%
9.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 12.4 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Seongnam FC vs Incheon United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Seongnam FC and Incheon United expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Seongnam FC and 0.94 for Incheon United, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Seongnam FC vs Incheon United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 34 outings, Seongnam FC have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 10W 10D 14L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Incheon United's form line: 12W 7D 15L from 34 games, 1.26 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Seongnam FC against 1.26 for Incheon United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Seongnam FC have posted 1.50 PPG from 16 outings (7W 3D 6L).
On the road, Incheon United have gone 5W 2D 9L from 16 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Seongnam FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Seongnam FC are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Incheon United are on 1.03 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Seongnam FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Seongnam FC
Current Season
Incheon United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Seongnam FC and Incheon United in coming into this match?
Seongnam FC have gone 10W 10D 14L in their last 34 games (1.18 PPG), while Incheon United have gone 12W 7D 15L in their last 34 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Seongnam FC at home or Incheon United away?
Seongnam FC's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Seongnam FC at home: 1.50 PPG; Incheon United away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Seongnam FC or Incheon United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Seongnam FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Incheon United in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Seongnam FC have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Incheon United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Seongnam FC
1
Draws
4
Incheon United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Incheon United?
From 7 meetings on record, Seongnam FC have won 2, Incheon United have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Seongnam FC and Incheon United last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2022, when Seongnam FC 3-1 Incheon United.
Who has won more matches between Seongnam FC and Incheon United?
Incheon United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Seongnam FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Incheon United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Seongnam FC 44%, Incheon United 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Seongnam FC) and 62% (Incheon United).
On the defensive side: Seongnam FC keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Incheon United in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Seongnam FC home games / Incheon United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Seongnam FC play Incheon United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Seongnam FC's recent matches and 50% of Incheon United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Seongnam FC vs Incheon United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Seongnam FC's recent games and 62% of Incheon United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Seongnam FC and Incheon United tend to score early?
Seongnam FC have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Incheon United in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Seongnam FC and Incheon United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tancheon Sports Complex, Relegation Round - 2, as Seongnam FC and Incheon United drew 1-1 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Seongnam FC 1.09 xG and Incheon United 0.94 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seongnam FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.97 against Incheon United attack 0.77 / defence 1.23, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Seongnam FC 39% | Draw 30% | Incheon United 31%, with Seongnam FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Seongnam FC 41%, Incheon United 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Seongnam FC's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Incheon United's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Seongnam FC 1.18 PPG, Incheon United 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.