Seongnam FC 1-1 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Daegu FC at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Daegu FC make the trip to Tancheon Sports Complex to face Seongnam FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 June 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Seongnam FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Seongnam FC at Tancheon Sports Complex this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tancheon Sports Complex.
Daegu FC have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Daegu FC's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Seongnam FC against 1.40 for Daegu FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Seongnam FC 0W, Daegu FC 2W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2022, ended 1–3 with Daegu FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Seongnam FC — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Daegu FC — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Seongnam FC 45% versus Daegu FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Seongnam FC 42% | Daegu FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Seongnam FC 1.22 xG and Daegu FC 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Seongnam FC attack 0.835 / defence 1.370 | Daegu FC attack 1.034 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.124. Daegu FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.205 — this is suppressing Seongnam FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Seongnam FC games / 48 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Seongnam FC 29% | Draw 25% | Daegu FC 46%. Fair-value odds: Seongnam FC 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | Daegu FC 2.17. Daegu FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Daegu FC as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daegu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 1.8 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Seongnam FC 40% | Daegu FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Tancheon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jun 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Seongnam FC 29% | Draw 25% | Daegu FC 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Seongnam FC 1.22 / Daegu FC 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Seongnam FC attack 0.835 / def 1.370 | Daegu FC attack 1.034 / def 1.205 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Seongnam FC xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Daegu FC xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC kick off?
Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 18 June 2022 at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC?
Seongnam FC 1 - 1 Daegu FC.
Where is Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What competition is Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC part of?
Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Seongnam FC a 29% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Seongnam FC and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Daegu FC?
Record (4 meetings): Seongnam FC 0W | Draws 2 | Daegu FC 2W.
What form are Seongnam FC and Daegu FC in?
Seongnam FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Seongnam FC's attack at 0.83x the league average against Daegu FC's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Daegu FC's attack (1.03x) against Seongnam FC's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
29%
3.41
25%
4.04
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Seongnam FC xG
Total xG
2.81
1.59
Daegu FC xG
3.41
29%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
6%
16.71
14%
7.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.5 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Seongnam FC and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Seongnam FC and 1.59 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Seongnam FC have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 11W 11D 16L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Daegu FC's form line: 15W 10D 13L from 38 games, 1.45 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Seongnam FC against 1.45 for Daegu FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Seongnam FC have posted 1.53 PPG from 19 outings (8W 5D 6L).
On the road, Daegu FC have gone 7W 4D 8L from 19 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Seongnam FC are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.08 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Seongnam FC
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Seongnam FC and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Seongnam FC have gone 11W 11D 16L in their last 38 games (1.16 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 15W 10D 13L in their last 38 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Seongnam FC at home or Daegu FC away?
Seongnam FC's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Seongnam FC at home: 1.53 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Seongnam FC or Daegu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Seongnam FC have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Daegu FC in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Seongnam FC have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Daegu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Seongnam FC
4
Draws
3
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Daegu FC?
From 7 meetings on record, Seongnam FC have won 0, Daegu FC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Seongnam FC and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2022, when Seongnam FC 4-4 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Seongnam FC and Daegu FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Seongnam FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Seongnam FC 42%, Daegu FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Seongnam FC) and 47% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Seongnam FC keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Seongnam FC have failed to score in 26% of games; Daegu FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Seongnam FC home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Seongnam FC play Daegu FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Seongnam FC's recent matches and 53% of Daegu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Seongnam FC's recent games and 47% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Seongnam FC and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Seongnam FC have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Seongnam FC and Daegu FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tancheon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 16, as Seongnam FC and Daegu FC drew 1-1 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Seongnam FC 1.22 xG and Daegu FC 1.59 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seongnam FC attack 0.83 / defence 1.37 against Daegu FC attack 1.03 / defence 1.21, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Seongnam FC 29% | Draw 25% | Daegu FC 46%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Seongnam FC 42%, Daegu FC 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Seongnam FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Daegu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Seongnam FC 1.16 PPG, Daegu FC 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.