Pohang Steelers 2-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 19 as Pohang Steelers welcome Ulsan Hyundai FC to Steelyard Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 July 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Pohang Steelers have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pohang Steelers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pohang Steelers have posted 4W 3D 3L at Steelyard Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Ulsan Hyundai FC's 2.00 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Pohang Steelers's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Pohang Steelers trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pohang Steelers 50% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pohang Steelers 38% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 1.01 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 1.017 / defence 0.809 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.245 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.127. Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence strength of 0.771 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Ulsan Hyundai FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.245 — the away xG of 1.14 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Pohang Steelers games / 51 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 32% | Draw 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Pohang Steelers 60% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Steelyard Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Jul 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 32% | Draw 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Pohang Steelers 1.01 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 1.017 / def 0.809 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.245 / def 0.771 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 2 July 2022 at Steelyard Stadium.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Pohang Steelers 2 - 0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Steelyard Stadium.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 32% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Pohang Steelers (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pohang Steelers's attack at 1.02x the league average against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Pohang Steelers's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
32%
3.14
30%
3.36
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
2.14
1.14
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
37%
2.74
Win to Nil
10%
9.77
14%
7.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 1.14 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pohang Steelers come into this having played 56 games, going 19W 16D 21L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-D. The sample for Pohang Steelers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ulsan Hyundai FC sit at 2.04 PPG from 56 outings (33W 15D 8L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Ulsan Hyundai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ulsan Hyundai FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Pohang Steelers — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Pohang Steelers's home form reads 10W 8D 10L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Ulsan Hyundai FC have taken 1.86 points per game from 28 outings (15W 7D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pohang Steelers are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.64 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Blended
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Pohang Steelers have gone 19W 16D 21L in their last 56 games (1.30 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 33W 15D 8L in their last 56 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pohang Steelers at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pohang Steelers at home: 1.36 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Pohang Steelers or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pohang Steelers have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Pohang Steelers's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Pohang Steelers
2
Draws
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Pohang Steelers have won 3, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Pohang Steelers 0-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pohang Steelers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pohang Steelers 50%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Pohang Steelers) and 57% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Pohang Steelers keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pohang Steelers play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Pohang Steelers's recent matches and 57% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Pohang Steelers's recent games and 57% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Pohang Steelers have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pohang Steelers cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pohang Steelers beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-0 at Steelyard Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.01 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.14 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pohang Steelers beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ulsan Hyundai FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 1.02 / defence 0.81 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.25 / defence 0.77, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 32% | Draw 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 38%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Pohang Steelers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 38%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.30. Form was overturned, with Pohang Steelers winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.