Pohang Steelers 1-0 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Pohang Steelers take on Gwangju FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pohang Steelers host Gwangju FC at Steelyard Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 30 May 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 0.97 xG and Gwangju FC 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 0.742 / defence 1.088 | Gwangju FC attack 0.752 / defence 1.362. League average goals — home 0.963 / away 1.194. Pohang Steelers's attack strength of 0.742 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Gwangju FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.362 — this is suppressing Pohang Steelers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Pohang Steelers games / 17 Gwangju FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 32% | Draw 36% | Gwangju FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 3.12 | Draw 2.78 | Gwangju FC 3.12. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Steelyard Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 30 May 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 32% | Draw 36% | Gwangju FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 41% | xG Pohang Steelers 0.97 / Gwangju FC 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 0.742 / def 1.088 | Gwangju FC attack 0.752 / def 1.362 | league avg home 0.963 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Gwangju FC xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 30 May 2021 at Steelyard Stadium.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC?
Pohang Steelers 1 - 0 Gwangju FC.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC being played?
The match is being played at Steelyard Stadium.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 32% chance of winning, Gwangju FC a 32% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Gwangju FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Gwangju FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pohang Steelers and Gwangju FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pohang Steelers's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Gwangju FC's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, Gwangju FC's attack versus Pohang Steelers's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.13
36%
2.78
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
1.95
0.98
Gwangju FC xG
3.13
32%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
12%
8.32
12%
8.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 13.9 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Gwangju FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 0.98 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Pre-Season
Gwangju FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Pohang Steelers go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jul 2026, when Pohang Steelers won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pohang Steelers's record when hosting Gwangju FC specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Pohang Steelers
1
Draws
2
Gwangju FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Gwangju FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Pohang Steelers have won 7, Gwangju FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Gwangju FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Gwangju FC 1-2 Pohang Steelers.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and Gwangju FC?
Pohang Steelers have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Gwangju FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Pohang Steelers defy the odds to beat Gwangju FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pohang Steelers beat Gwangju FC 1-0 at Steelyard Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 0.97 xG and Gwangju FC 0.98 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gwangju FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 0.74 / defence 1.09 against Gwangju FC attack 0.75 / defence 1.36, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 32% | Draw 36% | Gwangju FC 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Pohang Steelers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.