Pohang Steelers 4-3 Daejeon Citizen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Pohang Steelers at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pohang Steelers vs Daejeon Citizen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Steelyard Stadium plays host to Pohang Steelers versus Daejeon Citizen in K League 1, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Sunday 20 August 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Pohang Steelers (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Pohang Steelers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pohang Steelers's home record at Steelyard Stadium: 7W 1D 2L from 10 K League 1 appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Daejeon Citizen have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Daejeon Citizen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Daejeon Citizen's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Pohang Steelers. A 0.50 PPG lead over Daejeon Citizen (1.90 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Pohang Steelers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Daejeon Citizen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pohang Steelers 68% and Daejeon Citizen 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pohang Steelers 43% | Daejeon Citizen 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 1.96 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 1.147 / defence 0.989 | Daejeon Citizen attack 0.929 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.145. Daejeon Citizen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Pohang Steelers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Pohang Steelers games / 26 Daejeon Citizen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 58% | Draw 23% | Daejeon Citizen 19%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Daejeon Citizen 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Pohang Steelers (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pohang Steelers are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Pohang Steelers 60% | Daejeon Citizen 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Daejeon Citizen | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Steelyard Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Aug 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 58% | Draw 23% | Daejeon Citizen 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Pohang Steelers 1.96 / Daejeon Citizen 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 1.147 / def 0.989 | Daejeon Citizen attack 0.929 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Pohang Steelers (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Daejeon Citizen xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Daejeon Citizen kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Daejeon Citizen kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 20 August 2023 at Steelyard Stadium.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Daejeon Citizen?
Pohang Steelers 4 - 3 Daejeon Citizen.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Daejeon Citizen being played?
The match is being played at Steelyard Stadium.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Daejeon Citizen part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Daejeon Citizen is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 58% chance of winning, Daejeon Citizen a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Pohang Steelers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Daejeon Citizen will score (BTTS).
Will Pohang Steelers vs Daejeon Citizen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Daejeon Citizen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pohang Steelers and Daejeon Citizen in?
Pohang Steelers (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Pohang Steelers's attack rating (1.15) and Daejeon Citizen's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Daejeon Citizen's attack (0.93x) against Pohang Steelers's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 59/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pohang Steelers Win
58%
1.73
23%
4.36
19%
5.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
3.01
1.05
Daejeon Citizen xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
5.21
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
14%
7.11
Win to Nil
20%
4.94
3%
37.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.1 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Daejeon Citizen expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 1.05 for Daejeon Citizen, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Daejeon Citizen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 28 outings, Pohang Steelers have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 13W 11D 4L record — D-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Pohang Steelers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Daejeon Citizen's form line: 11W 9D 8L from 28 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Daejeon Citizen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.79 PPG for Pohang Steelers against 1.50 for Daejeon Citizen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Pohang Steelers have posted 2.14 PPG from 14 outings (9W 3D 2L).
On the road, Daejeon Citizen have gone 4W 5D 5L from 14 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pohang Steelers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pohang Steelers are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Daejeon Citizen are on 1.61 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pohang Steelers have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Daejeon Citizen in 61%.
Last 28 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Blended
Daejeon Citizen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pohang Steelers and Daejeon Citizen in coming into this match?
Pohang Steelers have gone 13W 11D 4L in their last 28 games (1.79 PPG), while Daejeon Citizen have gone 11W 9D 8L in their last 28 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pohang Steelers at home or Daejeon Citizen away?
Pohang Steelers's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pohang Steelers at home: 2.14 PPG; Daejeon Citizen away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Pohang Steelers go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Daejeon Citizen won 0-3 on 15 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pohang Steelers have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Daejeon Citizen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Pohang Steelers
1
Draws
3
Daejeon Citizen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Daejeon Citizen?
From 10 meetings on record, Pohang Steelers have won 6, Daejeon Citizen have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Daejeon Citizen last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Daejeon Citizen 0-2 Pohang Steelers.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and Daejeon Citizen?
Pohang Steelers have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pohang Steelers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Daejeon Citizen see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pohang Steelers 64%, Daejeon Citizen 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Pohang Steelers) and 64% (Daejeon Citizen).
On the defensive side: Daejeon Citizen in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Daejeon Citizen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pohang Steelers play Daejeon Citizen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Pohang Steelers's games and 57% of Daejeon Citizen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pohang Steelers vs Daejeon Citizen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Pohang Steelers's recent games and 64% of Daejeon Citizen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pohang Steelers and Daejeon Citizen tend to score early?
Pohang Steelers have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Daejeon Citizen in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pohang Steelers edge out Daejeon Citizen 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pohang Steelers beat Daejeon Citizen 4-3 at Steelyard Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.96 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.05 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Pohang Steelers beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Daejeon Citizen outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 1.15 / defence 0.99 against Daejeon Citizen attack 0.93 / defence 1.23, drawn from 59/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 58% | Draw 23% | Daejeon Citizen 19%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 43%, Daejeon Citizen 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pohang Steelers 1.79 PPG, Daejeon Citizen 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pohang Steelers win broke the near-deadlock. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.