Gangwon FC 3-0 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Suwon Bluewings at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Suwon Bluewings travel to Chuncheon Songam Stadium to take on Gangwon FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 August 2021, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Gangwon FC — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gangwon FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gangwon FC's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 games at Chuncheon Songam Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Suwon Bluewings stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Suwon Bluewings, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Suwon Bluewings's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Suwon Bluewings — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Gangwon FC have won 0, Suwon Bluewings 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Gangwon FC trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Suwon Bluewings trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 52% versus Suwon Bluewings 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gangwon FC 43% | Suwon Bluewings 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 0.98 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 0.985 / defence 1.002 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.991 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 0.930 / away 1.402. Data: 21 Gangwon FC games / 21 Suwon Bluewings games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 25% | Draw 31% | Suwon Bluewings 45%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 4.00 | Draw 3.23 | Suwon Bluewings 2.22. Suwon Bluewings hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Suwon Bluewings are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon Bluewings offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Gangwon FC 40% | Suwon Bluewings 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Chuncheon Songam Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Aug 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 25% | Draw 31% | Suwon Bluewings 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Gangwon FC 0.98 / Suwon Bluewings 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 0.985 / def 1.002 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.991 / def 1.072 | league avg home 0.930 / away 1.402 • Poisson stance: Suwon Bluewings (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Suwon Bluewings xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 1 August 2021 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Gangwon FC 3 - 0 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 25% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 45% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Suwon Bluewings the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Gangwon FC and Suwon Bluewings will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Record (1 meetings): Gangwon FC 0W | Draws 1 | Suwon Bluewings 0W.
What form are Gangwon FC and Suwon Bluewings in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gangwon FC's attack at 0.98x the league average against Suwon Bluewings's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon Bluewings's attack versus Gangwon FC's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.3%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon Bluewings Win
25%
4.04
31%
3.26
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
2.37
1.39
Suwon Bluewings xG
4.04
25%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
6%
16.22
17%
5.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 13.0 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 1.39 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gangwon FC's recent record stands at 4W 9D 8L from 21 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Gangwon FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Suwon Bluewings, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 6L across 21 games — 1.57 PPG, with D-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Suwon Bluewings is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Suwon Bluewings by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gangwon FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Gangwon FC have managed 2W 6D 2L from 10 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Suwon Bluewings's away record stands at 5W 3D 2L across 10 trips, a 1.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Suwon Bluewings come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gangwon FC are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Suwon Bluewings are on 1.48 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Suwon Bluewings in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Blended
Suwon Bluewings
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gangwon FC and Suwon Bluewings in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 4W 9D 8L in their last 21 games (1.00 PPG), while Suwon Bluewings have gone 9W 6D 6L in their last 21 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or Suwon Bluewings away?
Suwon Bluewings's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 1.20 PPG; Suwon Bluewings away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Gangwon FC or Suwon Bluewings been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gangwon FC have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Suwon Bluewings in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Aug 2021, when Gangwon FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gangwon FC's record when hosting Suwon Bluewings specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gangwon FC
5
Draws
3
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Suwon Bluewings?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 2, Suwon Bluewings have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
They last met on 2 December 2023, when Suwon Bluewings 0-0 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Suwon Bluewings have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gangwon FC 40%, Suwon Bluewings 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Gangwon FC) and 50% (Suwon Bluewings).
On the defensive side: Gangwon FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Suwon Bluewings in 50%; Gangwon FC have failed to score in 40% of games; Suwon Bluewings in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gangwon FC play Suwon Bluewings?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Gangwon FC's recent matches and 40% of Suwon Bluewings's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Gangwon FC's recent games and 50% of Suwon Bluewings's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gangwon FC and Suwon Bluewings tend to score early?
Gangwon FC have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Suwon Bluewings in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gangwon FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Suwon Bluewings.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC beat Suwon Bluewings 3-0 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 0.98 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.39 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Gangwon FC beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Suwon Bluewings landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.00 against Suwon Bluewings attack 0.99 / defence 1.07, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 25% | Draw 31% | Suwon Bluewings 45%, with Suwon Bluewings to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Gangwon FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 43%, Suwon Bluewings 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Suwon Bluewings arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Gangwon FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.