FC Anyang 1-3 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC Anyang face Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Anyang Stadium plays host to FC Anyang versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC in K League 1 (matchday 4). Kick-off: Saturday 8 March 2025 at 07:30 UK time.
Current Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Anyang 1.03 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Anyang attack 0.857 / defence 1.150 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.095 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.180 / away 1.029. Data: built from FC Anyang's last 3 games and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's last 36. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: FC Anyang 29% | Draw 30% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 41%. Fair-value odds: FC Anyang 3.51 | Draw 3.31 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.42. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (FC Anyang 3 games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 36) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 4 | Venue: Anyang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 March 2025 at 07:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Anyang 29% | Draw 30% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG FC Anyang 1.03 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: FC Anyang attack 0.857 / def 1.150 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.095 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.180 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
FC Anyang xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC FAQs
What time does FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 07:30 UK time on Saturday 8 March 2025 at Anyang Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
FC Anyang 1 - 3 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Anyang Stadium.
What competition is FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 4) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Anyang a 29% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both FC Anyang and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Anyang's attack rating (0.86) and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack (1.09x) against FC Anyang's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from FC Anyang's last 3 games and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's last 36, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
29%
3.51
30%
3.31
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
FC Anyang xG
Total xG
2.33
1.30
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
3.51
29%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
36%
2.82
Win to Nil
8%
12.81
15%
6.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 12.6 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are FC Anyang and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for FC Anyang and 1.30 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Anyang
Pre-Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
FC Anyang (Home) vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Anyang
Pre-Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between FC Anyang and Gimcheon Sangmu FC, the earliest from March 2025. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Anyang won FC Anyang 4-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC on 18 Oct 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Anyang have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Gimcheon Sangmu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
FC Anyang
2
Draws
3
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Anyang have won 2, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Anyang and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-0 FC Anyang.
Who has won more matches between FC Anyang and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Anyang home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC Anyang.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat FC Anyang 1-3 at Anyang Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Anyang 1.03 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.30 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Anyang attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.09 / defence 1.02, drawn from 3/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Anyang 29% | Draw 30% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 41%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.