Daejeon Citizen 0-3 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Daejeon Citizen at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Daejeon Citizen vs Jeju United FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Jeju United FC travel to Daejeon World Cup Stadium to take on Daejeon Citizen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 April 2023, 06:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Daejeon Citizen — All Games: 3W 0D 1L from 4 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.25 points per game. Last five: W L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Daejeon Citizen have played only a handful of K League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jeju United FC stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Jeju United FC have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Daejeon Citizen have the edge — a 1.15 PPG advantage (2.25 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Daejeon Citizen trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Jeju United FC trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Daejeon Citizen 50% and Jeju United FC 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Daejeon Citizen 75% | Jeju United FC 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daejeon Citizen 1.27 xG and Jeju United FC 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daejeon Citizen attack 1.125 / defence 0.931 | Jeju United FC attack 1.011 / defence 0.823. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.216. Data: 9 Daejeon Citizen games / 42 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 39% | Draw 27% | Jeju United FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Daejeon Citizen 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Jeju United FC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Daejeon Citizen are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daejeon Citizen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Daejeon Citizen 50% | Jeju United FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daejeon Citizen vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Daejeon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Apr 2023, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 39% | Draw 27% | Jeju United FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Daejeon Citizen 1.27 / Jeju United FC 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Daejeon Citizen attack 1.125 / def 0.931 | Jeju United FC attack 1.011 / def 0.823 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Daejeon Citizen (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Daejeon Citizen xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Jeju United FC xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daejeon Citizen vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Daejeon Citizen vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 06:00 on Sunday 30 April 2023 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Daejeon Citizen vs Jeju United FC?
Daejeon Citizen 0 - 3 Jeju United FC.
Where is Daejeon Citizen vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Daejeon Citizen vs Jeju United FC part of?
Daejeon Citizen vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daejeon Citizen vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Daejeon Citizen a 39% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Daejeon Citizen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daejeon Citizen vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Daejeon Citizen and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daejeon Citizen vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Jeju United FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Jeju United FC in?
Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 3W-0D-1L in 4 | 2.25 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.25 | L5 W-L-W-W. Jeju United FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Daejeon Citizen's attack at 1.12x the league average against Jeju United FC's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jeju United FC's attack versus Daejeon Citizen's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daejeon Citizen Win
39%
2.54
27%
3.64
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Daejeon Citizen xG
Total xG
2.42
1.15
Jeju United FC xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
13%
7.99
9%
10.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.2 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.0 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daejeon Citizen vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Daejeon Citizen and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Daejeon Citizen and 1.15 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Daejeon Citizen vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Daejeon Citizen's recent record stands at 3W 0D 1L from 4 games, a 2.25 PPG return, with W-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Daejeon Citizen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jeju United FC, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 2L across 4 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Jeju United FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Daejeon Citizen by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jeju United FC heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Daejeon Citizen are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.50 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jeju United FC in 100%.
Defensively: Daejeon Citizen have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daejeon Citizen
Early Season
Jeju United FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Daejeon Citizen have gone 3W 0D 1L in their last 4 games (2.25 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 (1.50 PPG).
Have Daejeon Citizen or Jeju United FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daejeon Citizen have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Jeju United FC in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Daejeon Citizen's record when hosting Jeju United FC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Daejeon Citizen
2
Draws
4
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daejeon Citizen have won 4, Jeju United FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Daejeon Citizen and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Jeju United FC 0-0 Daejeon Citizen.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Daejeon Citizen at 50%, Jeju United FC at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Daejeon Citizen and 100% for Jeju United FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Daejeon Citizen keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daejeon Citizen home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daejeon Citizen play Jeju United FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Daejeon Citizen's games and 100% of Jeju United FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Daejeon Citizen vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Daejeon Citizen's matches and 100% of Jeju United FC's.
Do Daejeon Citizen and Jeju United FC tend to score early?
Daejeon Citizen have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Jeju United FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jeju United FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Daejeon Citizen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC beat Daejeon Citizen 0-3 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 1.27 xG and Jeju United FC 1.15 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Daejeon Citizen fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Jeju United FC outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 1.12 / defence 0.93 against Jeju United FC attack 1.01 / defence 0.82, drawn from 9/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 39% | Draw 27% | Jeju United FC 33%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Jeju United FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 88% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 75%, Jeju United FC 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Daejeon Citizen arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Jeju United FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Daejeon Citizen managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jeju United FC scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.