Daejeon Citizen 1-0 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daejeon Citizen at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Daegu FC travel to Daejeon World Cup Stadium to take on Daejeon Citizen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 June 2024, 08:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Daejeon Citizen stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Daejeon Citizen's home record at Daejeon World Cup Stadium: 4W 4D 2L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Daegu FC — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Daegu FC have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Daejeon Citizen 1.40 PPG, Daegu FC 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Daejeon Citizen register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Daegu FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Daejeon Citizen, 2 for Daegu FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Daejeon Citizen in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Daegu FC in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daejeon Citizen 62% versus Daegu FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daejeon Citizen 55% | Daegu FC 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daejeon Citizen 1.27 xG and Daegu FC 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.812 / defence 0.869 | Daegu FC attack 0.876 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.163. Data: 48 Daejeon Citizen games / 48 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 45% | Draw 29% | Daegu FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Daejeon Citizen 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Daegu FC 3.85. Daejeon Citizen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Daejeon Citizen are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daejeon Citizen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 0.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. This conflicts with form data: Daejeon Citizen 60% | Daegu FC 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Daejeon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Jun 2024, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 45% | Draw 29% | Daegu FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Daejeon Citizen 1.27 / Daegu FC 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.812 / def 0.869 | Daegu FC attack 0.876 / def 1.101 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Daejeon Citizen (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Daejeon Citizen xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Daegu FC xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC kick off?
Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 2 June 2024 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC?
Daejeon Citizen 1 - 0 Daegu FC.
Where is Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC part of?
Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Daejeon Citizen a 45% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Daejeon Citizen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Daejeon Citizen and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Daegu FC?
Record (4 meetings): Daejeon Citizen 1W | Draws 1 | Daegu FC 2W.
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Daegu FC in?
Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Daejeon Citizen's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Daegu FC's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus Daejeon Citizen's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daejeon Citizen Win
45%
2.21
29%
3.47
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Daejeon Citizen xG
Total xG
2.15
0.89
Daegu FC xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
7%
13.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 10.3 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.0 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Daejeon Citizen and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Daejeon Citizen and 0.89 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Daejeon Citizen come into this having played 40 games, going 14W 15D 11L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, Daegu FC sit at 1.38 PPG from 40 outings (13W 16D 11L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Daejeon Citizen on 1.42 PPG, Daegu FC on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Daejeon Citizen's home form reads 9W 6D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Daegu FC have taken 1.20 points per game from 20 outings (6W 6D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Daejeon Citizen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Daejeon Citizen are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.18 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Daejeon Citizen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daejeon Citizen
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Daejeon Citizen have gone 14W 15D 11L in their last 40 games (1.42 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 13W 16D 11L in their last 40 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daejeon Citizen at home or Daegu FC away?
Daejeon Citizen's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daejeon Citizen at home: 1.65 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Daejeon Citizen or Daegu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daejeon Citizen have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Daegu FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Daejeon Citizen and Daegu FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Daejeon Citizen have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Daejeon Citizen's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 5W 0D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Daejeon Citizen
2
Draws
2
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daejeon Citizen have won 6, Daegu FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Daejeon Citizen and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Daejeon Citizen 3-2 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daejeon Citizen and Daegu FC?
Daejeon Citizen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daejeon Citizen 60%, Daegu FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Daejeon Citizen) and 40% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daejeon Citizen home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daejeon Citizen play Daegu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Daejeon Citizen's games and 50% of Daegu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Daejeon Citizen's recent games and 40% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daejeon Citizen and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Daejeon Citizen have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Daejeon Citizen edge out Daegu FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daejeon Citizen beat Daegu FC 1-0 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 1.27 xG and Daegu FC 0.89 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Daegu FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 0.81 / defence 0.87 against Daegu FC attack 0.88 / defence 1.10, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 45% | Draw 29% | Daegu FC 26%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 55%, Daegu FC 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Daegu FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daejeon Citizen 1.42 PPG, Daegu FC 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daejeon Citizen win broke the near-deadlock. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.