Daegu FC 2-1 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon Bluewings at 39%, yet in-form Daegu FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
DGB Arena plays host to Daegu FC versus Suwon Bluewings in K League 1, Championship Round - 3. Kick-off: Sunday 21 November 2021 at 07:30 UTC.
Form
Daegu FC (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Daegu FC's home record at DGB Arena: 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Suwon Bluewings's overall K League 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Suwon Bluewings have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Daegu FC. A 0.70 PPG lead over Suwon Bluewings (1.80 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Daegu FC 0W, Suwon Bluewings 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Suwon Bluewings winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Daegu FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 41% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Suwon Bluewings goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 54% versus Suwon Bluewings 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 46% | Suwon Bluewings 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 0.92 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.926 / defence 1.053 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.827 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 0.937 / away 1.264. Data: 33 Daegu FC games / 33 Suwon Bluewings games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 30% | Draw 30% | Suwon Bluewings 39%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Suwon Bluewings 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Suwon Bluewings at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Daegu FC (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suwon Bluewings if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Daegu FC 50% | Suwon Bluewings 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: DGB Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 30% | Draw 30% | Suwon Bluewings 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Daegu FC 0.92 / Suwon Bluewings 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.926 / def 1.053 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.827 / def 1.064 | league avg home 0.937 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Suwon Bluewings (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Suwon Bluewings xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at DGB Arena.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Daegu FC 2 - 1 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at DGB Arena.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings is a Championship Round - 3 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 30% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Suwon Bluewings the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Record (2 meetings): Daegu FC 0W | Draws 1 | Suwon Bluewings 1W.
What form are Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Daegu FC's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Suwon Bluewings's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. Flip it around — Suwon Bluewings's attack (0.83x) against Daegu FC's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon Bluewings Win
30%
3.32
30%
3.28
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.03
1.10
Suwon Bluewings xG
3.32
30%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
10%
10.00
16%
6.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 14.5 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.10 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 35 outings, Daegu FC have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 14W 10D 11L record — D-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Suwon Bluewings's form line: 12W 9D 14L from 35 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Daegu FC against 1.29 for Suwon Bluewings. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Daegu FC have posted 1.59 PPG from 17 outings (7W 6D 4L).
On the road, Suwon Bluewings have gone 7W 4D 6L from 17 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Daegu FC are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Suwon Bluewings are on 1.17 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 35 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
Suwon Bluewings
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 14W 10D 11L in their last 35 games (1.49 PPG), while Suwon Bluewings have gone 12W 9D 14L in their last 35 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Suwon Bluewings away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.59 PPG; Suwon Bluewings away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Daegu FC or Suwon Bluewings been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daegu FC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Suwon Bluewings in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Daegu FC won 3-0 on 8 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daegu FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Suwon Bluewings — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Daegu FC
3
Draws
2
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 5, Suwon Bluewings have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
They last met on 17 September 2023, when Suwon Bluewings 0-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 41% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 53%, Suwon Bluewings 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Daegu FC) and 41% (Suwon Bluewings).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Suwon Bluewings in 47%; Suwon Bluewings in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Suwon Bluewings?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 29% of Suwon Bluewings's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Daegu FC's recent games and 41% of Suwon Bluewings's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Daegu FC defy the odds to beat Suwon Bluewings 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Suwon Bluewings 2-1 at DGB Arena, Championship Round - 3, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 0.92 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.10 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Daegu FC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.05 against Suwon Bluewings attack 0.83 / defence 1.06, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 30% | Draw 30% | Suwon Bluewings 39%, with Suwon Bluewings to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Daegu FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 46%, Suwon Bluewings 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.49 PPG, Suwon Bluewings 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daegu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Daegu FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.