Daegu FC 1-1 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Daegu FC (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Daegu FC face Suwon Bluewings.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
DGB Daegu Bank Park plays host to Daegu FC versus Suwon Bluewings in K League 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 1 July 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Daegu FC (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Daegu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Daegu FC's home record at DGB Daegu Bank Park: 4W 4D 2L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Suwon Bluewings's overall K League 1 record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Suwon Bluewings, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Suwon Bluewings have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Daegu FC. A 1.00 PPG lead over Suwon Bluewings (1.70 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Daegu FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Suwon Bluewings in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Daegu FC 4W, Suwon Bluewings 2W, 2D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2023, ended 1–0 with Daegu FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Daegu FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Suwon Bluewings goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 58% versus Suwon Bluewings 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 49% | Suwon Bluewings 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.47 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 1.078 / defence 1.027 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.922 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.231. Data: 52 Daegu FC games / 52 Suwon Bluewings games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 43% | Draw 28% | Suwon Bluewings 29%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Suwon Bluewings 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Daegu FC at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daegu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Daegu FC 60% | Suwon Bluewings 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Jul 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 43% | Draw 28% | Suwon Bluewings 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Daegu FC 1.47 / Suwon Bluewings 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 1.078 / def 1.027 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.922 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Suwon Bluewings xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 1 July 2023 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Daegu FC 1 - 1 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 43% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Record (8 meetings): Daegu FC 4W | Draws 2 | Suwon Bluewings 2W.
What form are Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Daegu FC's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Suwon Bluewings's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. Flip it around — Suwon Bluewings's attack (0.92x) against Daegu FC's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
43%
2.33
28%
3.55
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.63
1.17
Suwon Bluewings xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
13%
7.46
7%
15.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.3 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.17 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 57 outings, Daegu FC have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 17W 22D 18L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Daegu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Suwon Bluewings's form line: 13W 15D 29L from 57 games, 0.95 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Suwon Bluewings is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Daegu FC against 0.95 for Suwon Bluewings. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Daegu FC have posted 1.67 PPG from 27 outings (12W 9D 6L).
On the road, Suwon Bluewings have gone 7W 6D 14L from 27 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Daegu FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Daegu FC are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Suwon Bluewings are on 1.07 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 57 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Blended
Suwon Bluewings
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 17W 22D 18L in their last 57 games (1.28 PPG), while Suwon Bluewings have gone 13W 15D 29L in their last 57 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Suwon Bluewings away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.67 PPG; Suwon Bluewings away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Daegu FC won 3-0 on 8 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daegu FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Suwon Bluewings — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Daegu FC
3
Draws
2
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 5, Suwon Bluewings have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
They last met on 17 September 2023, when Suwon Bluewings 0-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Suwon Bluewings are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 52%, Suwon Bluewings 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Daegu FC) and 56% (Suwon Bluewings).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Suwon Bluewings in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Suwon Bluewings?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Daegu FC's games and 59% of Suwon Bluewings's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Daegu FC's recent games and 56% of Suwon Bluewings's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings tend to score early?
Daegu FC have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Suwon Bluewings in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 20, as Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings drew 1-1 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.47 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.17 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 1.08 / defence 1.03 against Suwon Bluewings attack 0.92 / defence 1.04, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 43% | Draw 28% | Suwon Bluewings 29%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 49%, Suwon Bluewings 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.28 PPG, Suwon Bluewings 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.