Daegu FC 1-1 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Daegu FC at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Daegu FC and Jeju United FC meet at DGB Daegu Bank Park in K League 1, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 March 2023 at 07:30 UTC.
Current Form
Daegu FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Daegu FC have posted 3W 4D 3L at DGB Daegu Bank Park — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at DGB Daegu Bank Park this season.
Jeju United FC have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Jeju United FC's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Daegu FC's favour (1.80 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Daegu FC — key trading statistics (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Jeju United FC — key trading statistics (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 58% versus Jeju United FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 50% | Jeju United FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.42 xG and Jeju United FC 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.991 / defence 1.002 | Jeju United FC attack 1.007 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.265. Data: 34 Daegu FC games / 34 Jeju United FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 40% | Draw 26% | Jeju United FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Jeju United FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Daegu FC as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daegu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Daegu FC 50% | Jeju United FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Mar 2023, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 40% | Draw 26% | Jeju United FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Daegu FC 1.42 / Jeju United FC 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.991 / def 1.002 | Jeju United FC attack 1.007 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Jeju United FC xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 4 March 2023 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Daegu FC 1 - 1 Jeju United FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 40% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Daegu FC and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Jeju United FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Daegu FC and Jeju United FC in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Jeju United FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Daegu FC's attack rating (0.99) and Jeju United FC's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jeju United FC's attack (1.01x) against Daegu FC's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
The sample (34/34 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
40%
2.48
26%
3.88
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.69
1.28
Jeju United FC xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
11%
8.88
8%
12.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.2 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.28 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Daegu FC's recent record stands at 25W 26D 25L from 76 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-D in the last five.
Jeju United FC, meanwhile, have gone 26W 26D 24L across 76 games — 1.37 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Daegu FC against 1.37 for Jeju United FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Daegu FC have managed 16W 12D 10L from 38 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jeju United FC's away record stands at 14W 12D 12L across 38 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Daegu FC are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.34 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jeju United FC in 61%.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 25W 26D 25L in their last 76 games (1.33 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 26W 26D 24L in their last 76 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Jeju United FC away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.58 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Daegu FC won 0-4 on 14 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daegu FC have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Daegu FC
3
Draws
2
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 5, Jeju United FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Jeju United FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Jeju United FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 50%, Jeju United FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Daegu FC) and 55% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Jeju United FC in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Jeju United FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 58% of Jeju United FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Daegu FC's recent games and 55% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Daegu FC and Jeju United FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC and Jeju United FC finished level at 1-1 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 2, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.42 xG and Jeju United FC 1.28 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.00 against Jeju United FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.00, drawn from 34/34 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 40% | Draw 26% | Jeju United FC 34%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 50%, Jeju United FC 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.33 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.