NEOM 1-0 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fayha at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NEOM vs Al-Fayha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Al-Fayha travel to King Khalid Sports City to take on NEOM. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 April 2026, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, NEOM stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for NEOM, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEOM's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at King Khalid Sports City this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Fayha — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. NEOM register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Fayha in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, NEOM have won 0, Al-Fayha 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
NEOM trading profile (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Al-Fayha trading profile (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEOM 62% versus Al-Fayha 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEOM 54% | Al-Fayha 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEOM 1.42 xG and Al-Fayha 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEOM attack 0.806 / defence 1.129 | Al-Fayha attack 1.093 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.433. Data: 26 NEOM games / 60 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEOM 31% | Draw 24% | Al-Fayha 46%. Fair-value odds: NEOM 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Fayha 2.17. Al-Fayha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: NEOM 60% | Al-Fayha 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEOM vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: King Khalid Sports City • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Apr 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEOM 31% | Draw 24% | Al-Fayha 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG NEOM 1.42 / Al-Fayha 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: NEOM attack 0.806 / def 1.129 | Al-Fayha attack 1.093 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
NEOM xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Al-Fayha xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEOM vs Al-Fayha kick off?
NEOM vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 4 April 2026 at King Khalid Sports City.
What was the final score in NEOM vs Al-Fayha?
NEOM 1 - 0 Al-Fayha.
Where is NEOM vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at King Khalid Sports City.
What competition is NEOM vs Al-Fayha part of?
NEOM vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win NEOM vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives NEOM a 31% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 46% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEOM vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both NEOM and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will NEOM vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEOM and Al-Fayha?
Record (1 meetings): NEOM 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Fayha 0W.
What form are NEOM and Al-Fayha in?
NEOM (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Al-Fayha (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
NEOM's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus NEOM's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
31%
3.24
24%
4.25
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
NEOM xG
Total xG
3.19
1.77
Al-Fayha xG
3.24
31%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
17%
5.86
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
5%
19.00
11%
9.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEOM vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are NEOM and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for NEOM and 1.77 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for NEOM vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 26 outings, NEOM have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 9W 6D 11L record — W-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for NEOM is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fayha's form line: 9W 6D 11L from 26 games, 1.27 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: NEOM on 1.27 PPG, Al-Fayha on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, NEOM have posted 1.08 PPG from 13 outings (4W 2D 7L).
On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 4W 1D 8L from 13 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
NEOM are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.31 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NEOM have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEOM
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEOM and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
NEOM have gone 9W 6D 11L in their last 26 games (1.27 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 9W 6D 11L in their last 26 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEOM at home or Al-Fayha away?
NEOM's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEOM at home: 1.08 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
NEOM have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
NEOM's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
2
NEOM
1
Draws
0
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEOM and Al-Fayha?
From 3 meetings on record, NEOM have won 2, Al-Fayha have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NEOM and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when NEOM 2-1 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between NEOM and Al-Fayha?
NEOM have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NEOM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEOM 62%, Al-Fayha 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for NEOM and 77% for Al-Fayha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEOM home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEOM play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of NEOM's games and 62% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NEOM vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of NEOM's matches and 77% of Al-Fayha's.
Do NEOM and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
NEOM have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as NEOM defy the odds to beat Al-Fayha 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEOM beat Al-Fayha 1-0 at King Khalid Sports City, Regular Season - 27, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEOM 1.42 xG and Al-Fayha 1.77 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Fayha landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEOM attack 0.81 / defence 1.13 against Al-Fayha attack 1.09 / defence 1.15, drawn from 26/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEOM 31% | Draw 24% | Al-Fayha 46%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual NEOM win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEOM 54%, Al-Fayha 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEOM's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEOM 1.27 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NEOM win broke the near-deadlock. NEOM (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.