Al Taawon 1-1 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taawon vs Damac fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Abdullah Sport City Stadium plays host to Al Taawon versus Damac in Pro League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Friday 16 September 2022 at 16:50 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Taawon have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Al Taawon have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Taawon have posted 4W 4D 2L at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Damac (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Damac have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Damac have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Al Taawon, 1.40 for Damac — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al Taawon, 0 for Damac and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jun 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al Taawon half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Damac half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Taawon 70% and Damac 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 48% | Damac 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.15 xG and Damac 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.017 / defence 0.863 | Damac attack 0.965 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.082 / away 1.094. Data: 33 Al Taawon games / 33 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 41% | Draw 30% | Damac 29%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Damac 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Taawon at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taawon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al Taawon 50% | Damac 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 16 Sep 2022, 16:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 41% | Draw 30% | Damac 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Al Taawon 1.15 / Damac 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 1.017 / def 0.863 | Damac attack 0.965 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.082 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Damac xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Damac kick off?
Al Taawon vs Damac kicked off at 16:50 on Friday 16 September 2022 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Damac?
Al Taawon 1 - 1 Damac.
Where is Al Taawon vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Damac part of?
Al Taawon vs Damac is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 41% chance of winning, Damac a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Al Taawon and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Damac?
Record (2 meetings): Al Taawon 1W | Draws 1 | Damac 0W.
What form are Al Taawon and Damac in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Damac (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al Taawon's attack rating (1.02) and Damac's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Damac's attack (0.96x) against Al Taawon's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
41%
2.43
30%
3.33
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.06
0.91
Damac xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
17%
6.06
9%
10.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 11.6 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.3 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Al Taawon and 0.91 for Damac, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Taawon come into this having played 33 games, going 9W 14D 10L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Al Taawon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Damac sit at 1.52 PPG from 33 outings (14W 8D 11L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Damac, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Al Taawon against 1.52 for Damac. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Taawon's home form reads 5W 6D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Damac have taken 1.31 points per game from 16 outings (6W 3D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Al Taawon are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.27 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 33 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Early Season
Damac
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Damac in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 9W 14D 10L in their last 33 games (1.24 PPG), while Damac have gone 14W 8D 11L in their last 33 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Damac away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.31 PPG; Damac away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Damac been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Damac in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 12 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Taawon won 6-1 on 19 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taawon have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Damac — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Taawon
4
Draws
1
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Damac?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 5, Damac have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2026, when Damac 2-1 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Damac?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 62%, Damac 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Al Taawon) and 56% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Damac in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Damac?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Al Taawon's games and 50% of Damac's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taawon vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Al Taawon's recent games and 56% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Damac tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Damac in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taawon and Damac share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon and Damac finished level at 1-1 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.15 xG and Damac 0.91 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.02 / defence 0.86 against Damac attack 0.96 / defence 1.04, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 41% | Draw 30% | Damac 29%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 48%, Damac 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Damac's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Taawon 1.24 PPG, Damac 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.