Al Taawon 1-1 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taawon vs Al Shabab fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Abdullah Sport City Stadium plays host to Al Taawon versus Al Shabab in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Friday 20 January 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Al Taawon's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Al Taawon have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Al Shabab have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Shabab have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Al Taawon, 1 for Al Shabab and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Jun 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al Taawon half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Al Shabab half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 67% versus Al Shabab 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 51% | Al Shabab 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.71 xG and Al Shabab 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.996 / defence 1.058 | Al Shabab attack 1.097 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.132. Data: 43 Al Taawon games / 43 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 46% | Draw 25% | Al Shabab 29%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Al Shabab 3.45. Al Taawon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taawon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 50% | Al Shabab 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 20 Jan 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 46% | Draw 25% | Al Shabab 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Al Taawon 1.71 / Al Shabab 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.996 / def 1.058 | Al Shabab attack 1.097 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Al Shabab xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al Shabab kicked off at 16:30 on Friday 20 January 2023 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al Shabab?
Al Taawon 1 - 1 Al Shabab.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al Shabab part of?
Al Taawon vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 46% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al Taawon and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Shabab?
Record (2 meetings): Al Taawon 0W | Draws 1 | Al Shabab 1W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al Shabab in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Al Shabab (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al Taawon's attack at 1.00x the league average against Al Shabab's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Shabab's attack (1.10x) against Al Taawon's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
46%
2.17
25%
4.01
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
3.02
1.31
Al Shabab xG
2.17
46%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
18%
5.50
Win to Nil
12%
8.08
5%
18.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.9 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.31 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Taawon come into this having played 43 games, going 15W 15D 13L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Shabab sit at 1.91 PPG from 43 outings (23W 13D 7L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Shabab carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Taawon's home form reads 7W 7D 7L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Shabab have taken 1.57 points per game from 21 outings (9W 6D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Al Taawon are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.81 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al Shabab in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 15W 15D 13L in their last 43 games (1.40 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 23W 13D 7L in their last 43 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al Shabab away?
Al Shabab's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.33 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al Taawon go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Taawon won 1-5 on 3 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taawon have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Taawon
3
Draws
2
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Shabab?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 5, Al Shabab have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Al Shabab 1-5 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al Shabab?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 62%, Al Shabab 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Al Taawon) and 62% (Al Shabab).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al Shabab?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Al Taawon's games and 62% of Al Shabab's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taawon vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Al Taawon's recent games and 62% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taawon and Al Shabab share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 14, as Al Taawon and Al Shabab drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.71 xG and Al Shabab 1.31 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.00 / defence 1.06 against Al Shabab attack 1.10 / defence 1.19, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 46% | Draw 25% | Al Shabab 29%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 51%, Al Shabab 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Al Shabab's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.