Al Taawon 1-0 Al Najma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taawon vs Al Najma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Taawon and Al Najma meet at Al Taawon Arena in Pro League, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Monday 29 December 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Al Taawon's overall Pro League record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al Taawon Arena, Al Taawon have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Al Taawon Arena this season.
Al Najma have collected 0.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 0W 1D 9L. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Najma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Najma's away record: 0W 1D 5L from 6 road trips in Pro League this season (0.17 PPG). Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Al Taawon's 2.50 PPG return is 2.40 points per game ahead of Al Najma's 0.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Al Taawon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Al Najma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Taawon 60% and Al Najma 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Taawon 60% | Al Najma 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 2.63 xG and Al Najma 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.307 / defence 0.953 | Al Najma attack 0.671 / defence 1.368. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.450. Al Taawon carry an above-average attack strength of 1.307 — their λ of 2.63 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al Najma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.368 — this is suppressing Al Taawon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Al Taawon games / 10 Al Najma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 73% | Draw 18% | Al Najma 10%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 1.37 | Draw 5.56 | Al Najma 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Al Taawon (73%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Taawon at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.55 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 50% | Al Najma 83% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al Najma | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Al Taawon Arena • Kick-off: Monday 29 Dec 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 73% | Draw 18% | Al Najma 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 57% | xG Al Taawon 2.63 / Al Najma 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 1.307 / def 0.953 | Al Najma attack 0.671 / def 1.368 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.450 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.63
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Al Najma xG
57%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al Najma kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al Najma kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 29 December 2025 at Al Taawon Arena.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al Najma?
Al Taawon 1 - 0 Al Najma.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al Najma being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawon Arena.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al Najma part of?
Al Taawon vs Al Najma is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al Najma?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 73% chance of winning, Al Najma a 10% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al Najma?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al Taawon and Al Najma will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al Najma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Najma?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Taawon and Al Najma in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Al Najma (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Taawon's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Al Najma's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.63. Flip it around — Al Najma's attack (0.67x) against Al Taawon's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 44/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 3-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
73%
1.38
18%
5.71
10%
10.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
3 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.63
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
3.55
0.93
Al Najma xG
1.38
73%
Home win
5.71
18%
Draw
10.11
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
7%
13.83
Win to Nil
29%
3.48
1%
139.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al Najma?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al Najma expected to score?
The model projects 2.63 expected goals for Al Taawon and 0.93 for Al Najma, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al Najma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Taawon come into this having played 10 games, going 8W 1D 1L for 2.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Najma sit at 0.10 PPG from 10 outings (0W 1D 9L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Al Najma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.40 PPG clear of Al Najma — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Taawon's home form reads 3W 1D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That actually lags their 2.50 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Al Najma have taken 0.20 points per game from 5 outings (0W 1D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Taawon are averaging 2.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Al Najma are on 0.80 scored and 2.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Al Najma in 70%.
Last 10 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al Najma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al Najma in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 8W 1D 1L in their last 10 games (2.50 PPG), while Al Najma have gone 0W 1D 9L in their last 10 (0.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al Najma away?
Al Taawon's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 2.00 PPG; Al Najma away: 0.20 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Al Najma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Al Najma in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Al Taawon
0
Draws
0
Al Najma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Najma?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 2, Al Najma have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al Najma last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Al Najma 1-2 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al Najma?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Al Najma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Al Taawon, 80% for Al Najma — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Al Taawon and 80% for Al Najma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al Najma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al Najma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Al Taawon's games and 80% of Al Najma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taawon vs Al Najma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al Taawon's matches and 80% of Al Najma's.
Do Al Taawon and Al Najma tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al Najma in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Taawon edge out Al Najma 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al Najma 1-0 at Al Taawon Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 2.63 xG and Al Najma 0.93 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Taawon fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Al Najma landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.31 / defence 0.95 against Al Najma attack 0.67 / defence 1.37, drawn from 44/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 73% | Draw 18% | Al Najma 10%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 73%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 60%, Al Najma 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Najma's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 0.10. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Taawon (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Al Najma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.