Al Taawon 0-4 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC make the trip to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium to face Al Taawon in Pro League, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Friday 10 March 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Taawon have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 6W 4D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Hilal Saudi FC are 0.50 PPG clear of Al Taawon in recent Pro League fixtures (1.90 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Taawon lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Al Taawon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al Taawon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Al-Hilal Saudi FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Taawon 68% and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 49% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.23 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.873 / defence 0.996 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.220 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.241. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.220 — the away xG of 1.51 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Al Taawon games / 47 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 31% | Draw 26% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 44%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 70% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 10 Mar 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 31% | Draw 26% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Al Taawon 1.23 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.873 / def 0.996 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.220 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 10 March 2023 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al Taawon 0 - 4 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 31% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (3 meetings): Al Taawon 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al Taawon's attack rating (0.87) and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack (1.22x) against Al Taawon's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 49/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
31%
3.26
26%
3.89
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.73
1.51
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
22%
4.52
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
7%
14.72
13%
7.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.8 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.51 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Al Taawon have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 17W 16D 14L record — W-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form line: 29W 13D 5L from 47 games, 2.13 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-L. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Taawon.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al Taawon have posted 1.30 PPG from 23 outings (7W 9D 7L).
On the road, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 13W 9D 1L from 23 away games — 2.09 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Taawon are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 1.98 scored and 0.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 17W 16D 14L in their last 47 games (1.43 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 29W 13D 5L in their last 47 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.30 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.09 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-4 on 10 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taawon have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hilal Saudi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al Taawon
2
Draws
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 1, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-2 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 65%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Al Taawon) and 48% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Al Taawon's games and 56% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Al Taawon's recent games and 48% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Hilal Saudi FC run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Al Taawon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Taawon 0-4 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.23 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.51 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Al Taawon fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Al-Hilal Saudi FC outscored their 1.51 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.87 / defence 1.00 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.22 / defence 0.98, drawn from 49/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 31% | Draw 26% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 44%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 49%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.43. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Taawon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.