Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm Prediction & Preview
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Hazm at 34% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Taawon face Al-Hazm.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al Taawon welcome Al-Hazm to Al Taawon Arena in Pro League (matchday 23). Kick-off is Thursday 18 March 2027 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Taawon stand at 0W 4D 6L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Al Taawon have gone 0W 5D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Al-Hazm — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Hazm's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Taawon 0.40 PPG, Al-Hazm 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Al Taawon, 2 for Al-Hazm and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.4 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 8 Sep 2026, ended Al Taawon 0–1 Al-Hazm — a Al-Hazm win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Taawon trading profile (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Al-Hazm trading profile (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 59% versus Al-Hazm 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 50% | Al-Hazm 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.11 xG and Al-Hazm 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.634 / defence 0.885 | Al-Hazm attack 0.883 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.477. Al Taawon's attack rating of 0.634 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.11. Data: built from Al Taawon's last 46 games and Al-Hazm's last 46.
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 32% | Draw 34% | Al-Hazm 34%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 3.12 | Draw 2.96 | Al-Hazm 2.93. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al Taawon 40% (last 10 home games) | Al-Hazm 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, matchday 23 | Venue: Al Taawon Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 18 March 2027 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 32% | Draw 34% | Al-Hazm 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Al Taawon 1.11 / Al-Hazm 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.634 / def 0.885 | Al-Hazm attack 0.883 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.477 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Al-Hazm xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm FAQs
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 UK time on Thursday 18 March 2027 at Al Taawon Arena.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawon Arena.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm is a Pro League fixture (matchday 23) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 32% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Hazm will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Taawon's attack rating (0.63) and Al-Hazm's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Al Taawon's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Taawon's last 46 games and Al-Hazm's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hazm Win
32%
3.12
34%
2.96
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.26
1.15
Al-Hazm xG
3.12
32%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
10%
9.91
11%
8.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 12.0 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.15 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Al Taawon have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 15W 13D 18L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Al-Hazm's form line: 13W 13D 20L from 46 games, 1.13 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Taawon on 1.26 PPG, Al-Hazm on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Taawon have posted 1.30 PPG from their last 23 home games (7W 9D 7L).
On the road, Al-Hazm have gone 4W 8D 11L from their last 23 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Taawon are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.13 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm in 61%.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
Al Taawon (Home) vs Al-Hazm (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Taawon
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm Form FAQs
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 15W 13D 18L in their last 46 games (1.26 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 13W 13D 20L in their last 46 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.30 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 8 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Al-Hazm have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Mar 2024, when Al Taawon won Al Taawon 4-0 Al-Hazm.
Al Taawon's record when hosting Al-Hazm specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Al Taawon
2
Draws
2
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Hazm?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Taawon have won 3, Al-Hazm have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Hazm last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 September 2026: Al-Hazm 1-0 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Hazm?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 52%, Al-Hazm 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Al Taawon) and 56% (Al-Hazm).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Al Taawon have failed to score in 30% of games; Al-Hazm in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Taawon and Al-Hazm matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Al Taawon's games and 61% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Taawon and Al-Hazm matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Al Taawon's recent games and 56% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Hazm matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 65% of Al-Hazm's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.