Al Shabab 2-1 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 37%, yet in-form Al-Fayha provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium plays host to Al Shabab versus Al-Fayha in Pro League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Friday 1 October 2021 at 16:20 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Shabab have collected 1.00 PPG across 6 Pro League outings this season: 1W 3D 2L. Last five: D L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.67 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Shabab have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Shabab have posted 1W 2D 0L at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium — 1.67 PPG. They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Al Shabab are significantly better at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Fayha (all games): 3W 1D 1L across 5 Pro League outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fayha have posted 1W 1D 1L from 3 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.33 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Al-Fayha are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al Shabab have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Al-Fayha in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Al Shabab half-time and goal-timing data (5 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (5 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Shabab 60% and Al-Fayha 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al Shabab 40% | Al-Fayha 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.61 xG and Al-Fayha 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.187 / defence 1.273 | Al-Fayha attack 0.959 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 1.233. Data: 6 Al Shabab games / 5 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 37% | Draw 30% | Al-Fayha 33%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Fayha 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Fayha (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Shabab if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 67% | Al-Fayha 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 1 Oct 2021, 16:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 37% | Draw 30% | Al-Fayha 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 66% | xG Al Shabab 1.61 / Al-Fayha 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.187 / def 1.273 | Al-Fayha attack 0.959 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.185 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Al-Fayha xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 16:20 on Friday 1 October 2021 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha?
Al Shabab 2 - 1 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 37% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Fayha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Fayha in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 1W-3D-2L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.67 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-1D-1L in 5 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al Shabab's attack rating (1.19) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (0.96x) against Al Shabab's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 6/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
37%
2.68
30%
3.31
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
3.12
1.50
Al-Fayha xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.53
34%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
8%
12.08
6%
15.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.7 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.50 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 5 outings, Al Shabab have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 1W 3D 1L record — D-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al Shabab, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Fayha's form line: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Fayha are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Shabab.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al Shabab have posted 1.67 PPG from 3 outings (1W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Al Shabab are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Fayha's season.
Attack vs Defence
Al Shabab are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Shabab have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Al-Fayha in 60%.
Defensively: Al-Fayha in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Early Season
Al-Fayha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 1W 3D 1L in their last 5 games (1.20 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al Shabab's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.67 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Shabab have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Al Shabab
1
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 8, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Al Shabab 1-0 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Fayha?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Al Shabab, 100% for Al-Fayha — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al Shabab and 67% for Al-Fayha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al Shabab's games and 100% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al Shabab's matches and 67% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Shabab edge out Al-Fayha 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al-Fayha 2-1 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.61 xG and Al-Fayha 1.50 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.19 / defence 1.27 against Al-Fayha attack 0.96 / defence 1.15, drawn from 6/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 37% | Draw 30% | Al-Fayha 33%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 40%, Al-Fayha 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (5 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (5 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Fayha arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Al Shabab winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.