Al Shabab 1-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al Shabab at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 18 as Al Shabab welcome Al-Fateh to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 20 January 2022 at 14:10 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Shabab — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 0L across 9 games at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium this term (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.22 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fateh have posted 2W 3D 4L from 9 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game.
On current form, Al Shabab have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al Shabab, 1 for Al-Fateh and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with Al-Fateh winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al Shabab in-play and half-time data (16 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (16 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 50% versus Al-Fateh 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 56% | Al-Fateh 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.64 xG and Al-Fateh 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.265 / defence 0.967 | Al-Fateh attack 0.745 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.120 / away 1.182. Al Shabab carry an above-average attack strength of 1.265 — their λ of 1.64 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 17 Al Shabab games / 16 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 56% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 19%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Fateh 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Al Shabab (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 56% | Al-Fateh 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 20 Jan 2022, 14:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 56% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG Al Shabab 1.64 / Al-Fateh 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.265 / def 0.967 | Al-Fateh attack 0.745 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.120 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Al-Fateh xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 14:10 on Thursday 20 January 2022 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh?
Al Shabab 1 - 1 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 56% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Fateh?
Record (1 meetings): Al Shabab 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Fateh 1W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Fateh in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Al-Fateh (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Shabab's attack at 1.26x the league average against Al-Fateh's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al Shabab's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
56%
1.80
25%
3.95
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.49
0.85
Al-Fateh xG
1.80
56%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
24%
4.20
4%
27.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 11.6 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Al Shabab and 0.85 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Shabab's recent record stands at 9W 6D 1L from 16 games, a 2.06 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fateh, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 7L across 16 games — 1.06 PPG, with D-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Shabab by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fateh heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Shabab have managed 6W 3D 0L from 9 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fateh's away record stands at 2W 3D 4L across 9 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Shabab are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.25 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 9W 6D 1L in their last 16 games (2.06 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 4W 5D 7L in their last 16 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al Shabab's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 2.33 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Dec 2022, when Al-Fateh won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Shabab's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al Shabab
4
Draws
4
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 2, Al-Fateh have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2026, when Al Shabab 1-1 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 78% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 56%, Al-Fateh 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al Shabab) and 33% (Al-Fateh).
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Al-Fateh in 33%; Al-Fateh in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Fateh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 33% of Al-Fateh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Al Shabab's recent games and 33% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Shabab and Al-Fateh share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 18, as Al Shabab and Al-Fateh drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.64 xG and Al-Fateh 0.85 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.26 / defence 0.97 against Al-Fateh attack 0.74 / defence 1.16, drawn from 17/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 56% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 19%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 56%, Al-Fateh 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (16 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (16 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.