Al-Raed 0-3 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Raed and Al-Fateh meet at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Monday 10 April 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Raed's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Raed's home record at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Fateh (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al-Fateh arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al-Raed register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Al-Fateh in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Al-Raed 2W, Al-Fateh 1W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with Al-Fateh winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al-Raed half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 48% versus Al-Fateh 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 56% | Al-Fateh 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.55 xG and Al-Fateh 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 1.057 / defence 1.299 | Al-Fateh attack 1.131 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.308. Data: 52 Al-Raed games / 52 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 30% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 45%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 3.33 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Fateh 2.22. Al-Fateh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.92) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.47 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Raed 80% | Al-Fateh 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 10 Apr 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 30% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 69% | xG Al-Raed 1.55 / Al-Fateh 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 1.057 / def 1.299 | Al-Fateh attack 1.131 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.92
Al-Fateh xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 10 April 2023 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Raed 0 - 3 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 30% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Al-Raed and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Fateh?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Raed 2W | Draws 0 | Al-Fateh 1W.
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Al-Fateh (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Raed's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. Flip it around — Al-Fateh's attack (1.13x) against Al-Raed's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.92.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
30%
3.34
25%
4.00
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
3.47
1.92
Al-Fateh xG
3.34
30%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.20
Clean Sheet
15%
6.83
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
4%
22.84
10%
10.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.92 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Raed come into this having played 52 games, going 17W 11D 24L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-D. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Fateh sit at 1.35 PPG from 52 outings (20W 10D 22L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Al-Raed against 1.35 for Al-Fateh. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Raed's home form reads 9W 4D 12L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fateh have taken 1.32 points per game from 25 outings (9W 6D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Raed are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.58 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 17W 11D 24L in their last 52 games (1.19 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 20W 10D 22L in their last 52 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Fateh's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.24 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Al-Raed or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Raed have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Fateh won 0-3 on 10 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Raed have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al-Raed
0
Draws
5
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Fateh?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 3, Al-Fateh have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2025, when Al-Fateh 3-1 Al-Raed.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 44%, Al-Fateh 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Al-Raed) and 52% (Al-Fateh).
On the defensive side: Al-Raed have failed to score in 28% of games; Al-Fateh in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al-Fateh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 52% of Al-Fateh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Al-Raed's recent games and 52% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Raed and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Fateh run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Al-Raed.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al-Raed 0-3 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.55 xG and Al-Fateh 1.92 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Al-Raed fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Al-Fateh outscored their 1.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 1.06 / defence 1.30 against Al-Fateh attack 1.13 / defence 1.02, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 30% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 45%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 56%, Al-Fateh 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Raed 1.19 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.