Al-Raed 1-1 Al-Faisaly FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Raed at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Raed vs Al-Faisaly FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 6 as Al-Raed welcome Al-Faisaly FC to King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 September 2021 at 18:25 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Raed have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Al-Raed have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Faisaly FC — All Games: 2W 1D 2L from 5 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al-Faisaly FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Raed carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Al-Raed trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Al-Faisaly FC trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Raed 40% and Al-Faisaly FC 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 60% | Al-Faisaly FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.54 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.995 / defence 0.926 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.716 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.202. Al-Faisaly FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Al-Raed's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Al-Raed games / 5 Al-Faisaly FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 51% | Draw 33% | Al-Faisaly FC 16%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 1.96 | Draw 3.03 | Al-Faisaly FC 6.25. Al-Raed hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Raed are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Raed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Al-Raed 40% | Al-Faisaly FC 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al-Faisaly FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 18:25 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 51% | Draw 33% | Al-Faisaly FC 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Al-Raed 1.54 / Al-Faisaly FC 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.995 / def 0.926 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.716 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Al-Faisaly FC xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al-Faisaly FC kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al-Faisaly FC kicked off at 18:25 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Al-Raed 1 - 1 Al-Faisaly FC.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al-Faisaly FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al-Faisaly FC part of?
Al-Raed vs Al-Faisaly FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 51% chance of winning, Al-Faisaly FC a 16% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al-Raed and Al-Faisaly FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al-Faisaly FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Faisaly FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Faisaly FC in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 3W-1D-1L in 5 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Raed's attack at 0.99x the league average against Al-Faisaly FC's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Faisaly FC's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
51%
1.95
33%
3.04
16%
6.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
2.33
0.80
Al-Faisaly FC xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
6.32
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
3%
29.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 11.9 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al-Faisaly FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Al-Raed and 0.80 for Al-Faisaly FC, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 5 outings, Al-Raed have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 3W 1D 1L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Raed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Faisaly FC's form line: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games, 1.40 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Raed are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Faisaly FC.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Raed are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Al-Faisaly FC are on 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Faisaly FC in 80%.
Defensively: Al-Raed have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Early Season
Al-Faisaly FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Faisaly FC in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 games (2.00 PPG), while Al-Faisaly FC have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 (1.40 PPG).
Have Al-Raed or Al-Faisaly FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Raed have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Al-Faisaly FC in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al-Raed
2
Draws
0
Al-Faisaly FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Faisaly FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 0, Al-Faisaly FC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al-Faisaly FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2022, when Al-Faisaly FC 0-0 Al-Raed.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 40%, Al-Faisaly FC 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Al-Raed and 60% for Al-Faisaly FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Raed keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al-Faisaly FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al-Faisaly FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Al-Raed's games and 80% of Al-Faisaly FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Raed vs Al-Faisaly FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al-Raed's matches and 60% of Al-Faisaly FC's.
Do Al-Raed and Al-Faisaly FC tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Faisaly FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Raed and Al-Faisaly FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Raed and Al-Faisaly FC finished level at 1-1 at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.54 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 0.80 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.99 / defence 0.93 against Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.72 / defence 1.21, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 51% | Draw 33% | Al-Faisaly FC 16%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 60%, Al-Faisaly FC 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Faisaly FC's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Raed arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Raed managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.