Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-0 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Raed encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Raed meet at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 6 February 2025 at 15:05 UTC.
Form
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 2L across 8 games at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium this term (2.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Raed's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 0D 9L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Raed have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Qadisiyah FC's 2.50 PPG return is 2.20 points per game ahead of Al-Raed's 0.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 0 for Al-Raed and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Al-Qadisiyah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
Al-Raed goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 33% versus Al-Raed 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% | Al-Raed 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.55 xG and Al-Raed 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.883 / defence 0.945 | Al-Raed attack 0.937 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.353. Data: 18 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 52 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 45% | Draw 25% | Al-Raed 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Raed 3.33. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Qadisiyah FC 25% | Al-Raed 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 6 Feb 2025, 15:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 45% | Draw 25% | Al-Raed 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.55 / Al-Raed 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.883 / def 0.945 | Al-Raed attack 0.937 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Al-Raed xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Raed kicked off at 15:05 on Thursday 6 February 2025 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Raed?
Al-Qadisiyah FC 2 - 0 Al-Raed.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Raed part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 45% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Raed?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Qadisiyah FC 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Raed 0W.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Raed in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Al-Raed (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Qadisiyah FC's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Al-Raed's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. Flip it around — Al-Raed's attack (0.94x) against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 18/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
45%
2.21
25%
3.98
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
2.75
1.20
Al-Raed xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
14%
7.32
6%
15.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.9 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.20 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 18 outings, Al-Qadisiyah FC have picked up 2.11 PPG on a 12W 2D 4L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Raed's form line: 4W 2D 12L from 18 games, 0.78 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the form team by 1.33 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Raed.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Qadisiyah FC have posted 2.25 PPG from 8 outings (6W 0D 2L).
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 2W 0D 6L from 8 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.72 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.17 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
Al-Raed
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 12W 2D 4L in their last 18 games (2.11 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 4W 2D 12L in their last 18 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al-Raed away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.25 PPG; Al-Raed away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al-Raed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, Al-Raed in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
0
Draws
0
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Raed?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, Al-Raed have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2025, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-0 Al-Raed.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Raed?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 25%, Al-Raed 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 75% for Al-Raed. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al-Raed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent matches and 50% of Al-Raed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's matches and 75% of Al-Raed's.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Qadisiyah FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Raed.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al-Raed 2-0 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.55 xG and Al-Raed 1.20 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Raed landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.94 against Al-Raed attack 0.94 / defence 1.17, drawn from 18/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 45% | Draw 25% | Al-Raed 30%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%, Al-Raed 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Raed's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 0.78. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.