Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hazm meet at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Monday 24 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Qadisiyah FC have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have posted 6W 2D 2L at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium this season.
Al-Hazm's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hazm have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.80 in Al-Qadisiyah FC's favour (2.50 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Qadisiyah FC have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Al-Hazm in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2W, Al-Hazm 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2026, ended 2–0 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al-Qadisiyah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Al-Hazm goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Qadisiyah FC 63% and Al-Hazm 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 70% | Al-Hazm 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.24 xG and Al-Hazm 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.275 / defence 1.056 | Al-Hazm attack 0.881 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.475. Al-Qadisiyah FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.275 — their λ of 2.24 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 46 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 46 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 55% | Draw 23% | Al-Hazm 21%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Hazm 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.24 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.61 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 80% | Al-Hazm 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 24 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 55% | Draw 23% | Al-Hazm 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 68% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.24 / Al-Hazm 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.275 / def 1.056 | Al-Hazm attack 0.881 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Al-Hazm xG
68%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Monday 24 May 2027 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 55% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hazm?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Qadisiyah FC 2W | Draws 0 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Al-Hazm (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack at 1.27x the league average against Al-Hazm's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 2.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Hazm's attack (0.88x) against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 3-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
55%
1.81
23%
4.28
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
3 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
3.61
1.37
Al-Hazm xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.16
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
11%
9.38
Win to Nil
14%
7.12
2%
44.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.37 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 3.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 46 outings, Al-Qadisiyah FC have picked up 2.28 PPG on a 32W 9D 5L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hazm's form line: 13W 13D 20L from 46 games, 1.13 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-L. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the form team by 1.15 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Hazm.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Qadisiyah FC have posted 2.13 PPG from 23 outings (14W 7D 2L).
On the road, Al-Hazm have gone 4W 8D 11L from 23 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.13 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Qadisiyah FC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Al-Hazm in 61%.
Last 46 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 32W 9D 5L in their last 46 games (2.28 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 13W 13D 20L in their last 46 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.13 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al-Hazm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Hazm in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since January 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
0
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hazm?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-0 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hazm?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 65%, Al-Hazm 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 56% for Al-Hazm. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Al-Hazm in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's games and 61% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's matches and 56% of Al-Hazm's.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.