Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Qadisiyah FC (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Qadisiyah FC face Al-Fateh.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium plays host to Al-Qadisiyah FC versus Al-Fateh in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Thursday 26 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Qadisiyah FC have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Qadisiyah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have posted 6W 3D 1L at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Fateh (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fateh's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.70 in Al-Qadisiyah FC's favour (2.50 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Qadisiyah FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al-Fateh in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2W, Al-Fateh 0W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al-Qadisiyah FC half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Qadisiyah FC 66% and Al-Fateh 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 68% | Al-Fateh 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.75 xG and Al-Fateh 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.126 / defence 0.854 | Al-Fateh attack 0.740 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.406. Data: 38 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 38 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 56% | Draw 27% | Al-Fateh 17%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.79 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Fateh 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 60% | Al-Fateh 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 56% | Draw 27% | Al-Fateh 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.75 / Al-Fateh 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.126 / def 0.854 | Al-Fateh attack 0.740 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Al-Fateh xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Thursday 26 November 2026 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 56% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 17% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fateh?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Qadisiyah FC 2W | Draws 2 | Al-Fateh 0W.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack at 1.13x the league average against Al-Fateh's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Fateh's attack (0.74x) against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
56%
1.80
27%
3.66
17%
5.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
2.63
0.89
Al-Fateh xG
1.80
56%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
5.90
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
17%
5.73
Win to Nil
23%
4.36
3%
33.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.1 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 0.89 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Qadisiyah FC come into this having played 38 games, going 26W 8D 4L for 2.26 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Fateh sit at 1.03 PPG from 38 outings (9W 12D 17L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.23 PPG clear of Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home form reads 12W 6D 1L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fateh have taken 0.68 points per game from 19 outings (2W 7D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 2.39 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.11 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Qadisiyah FC have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Early Season
Al-Fateh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 26W 8D 4L in their last 38 games (2.26 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 9W 12D 17L in their last 38 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.21 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Qadisiyah FC won 3-0 on 23 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
2
Draws
0
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fateh?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, Al-Fateh have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 1-1 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fateh?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 58%, Al-Fateh 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Al-Qadisiyah FC) and 37% (Al-Fateh).
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Al-Fateh in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's games and 58% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent games and 37% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.