Al Okhdood 1-0 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Okhdood vs Al-Fateh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City plays host to Al Okhdood versus Al-Fateh in Pro League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Sunday 5 April 2026 at 16:55 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Okhdood have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Al Okhdood have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Al Okhdood are significantly better at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City than their overall form suggests.
Al-Fateh (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.40 PPG for Al Okhdood against 0.70 for Al-Fateh. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Al Okhdood 1W, Al-Fateh 3W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Al-Fateh winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al Okhdood half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 50% versus Al-Fateh 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 52% | Al-Fateh 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.30 xG and Al-Fateh 2.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.744 / defence 1.522 | Al-Fateh attack 0.971 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.428. Al Okhdood's attack strength of 0.744 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Al Okhdood games / 60 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 23% | Draw 21% | Al-Fateh 56%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 4.35 | Draw 4.76 | Al-Fateh 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fateh (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 2.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fateh at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.41 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 50% | Al-Fateh 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Apr 2026, 16:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 23% | Draw 21% | Al-Fateh 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 64% | xG Al Okhdood 1.30 / Al-Fateh 2.11 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.744 / def 1.522 | Al-Fateh attack 0.971 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.428 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
2.11
Al-Fateh xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 16:55 on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Fateh?
Al Okhdood 1 - 0 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 23% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 56% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Okhdood vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Fateh?
Record (5 meetings): Al Okhdood 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Fateh 3W.
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Fateh in?
Al Okhdood (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al Okhdood's attack rating (0.74) and Al-Fateh's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Fateh's attack (0.97x) against Al Okhdood's defence (1.52x) — and the away total comes out at 2.11.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
23%
4.32
21%
4.80
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
0 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
3.41
2.11
Al-Fateh xG
4.32
23%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
12%
8.24
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
3%
35.62
15%
6.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 2.11 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al-Fateh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Okhdood come into this having played 60 games, going 12W 11D 37L for 0.78 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Fateh sit at 1.12 PPG from 60 outings (18W 13D 29L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.78 PPG for Al Okhdood against 1.12 for Al-Fateh. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Okhdood's home form reads 5W 7D 17L across 29 games on their own ground, a 0.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fateh have taken 0.86 points per game from 29 outings (6W 7D 16L).
Attack vs Defence
Al Okhdood are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.35 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh in 68%.
Last 60 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 12W 11D 37L in their last 60 games (0.78 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 18W 13D 29L in their last 60 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Fateh's away record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 0.76 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Okhdood have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al Okhdood
1
Draws
3
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Fateh?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Okhdood have won 2, Al-Fateh have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Al Okhdood 1-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Okhdood 59%, Al-Fateh 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Al Okhdood) and 52% (Al-Fateh). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Okhdood have failed to score in 31% of games; Al-Fateh in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Okhdood play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Al Okhdood's games and 59% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Okhdood vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Al Okhdood's matches and 52% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al Okhdood and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al Okhdood have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Okhdood defy the odds to beat Al-Fateh 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Okhdood beat Al-Fateh 1-0 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Regular Season - 27, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.30 xG and Al-Fateh 2.11 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Fateh landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.74 / defence 1.52 against Al-Fateh attack 0.97 / defence 1.14, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 23% | Draw 21% | Al-Fateh 56%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Al Okhdood win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 52%, Al-Fateh 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Okhdood 0.78 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Okhdood win broke the near-deadlock. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.