Al-Nassr 1-0 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Al-Fayha travel to Mrsool Park to take on Al-Nassr. The game is scheduled for Thursday 17 March 2022, 16:50 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Nassr stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr at Mrsool Park this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Fayha — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Al-Nassr are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al-Nassr, 0 for Al-Fayha and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Nassr trading profile (23 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Al-Fayha trading profile (23 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 56% versus Al-Fayha 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 65% | Al-Fayha 17%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.48 xG and Al-Fayha 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.201 / defence 1.393 | Al-Fayha attack 0.618 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.125. Data: 24 Al-Nassr games / 23 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 49% | Draw 26% | Al-Fayha 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Fayha 4.00. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Nassr 60% | Al-Fayha 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Mrsool Park • Kick-off: Thursday 17 Mar 2022, 16:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 49% | Draw 26% | Al-Fayha 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Al-Nassr 1.48 / Al-Fayha 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.201 / def 1.393 | Al-Fayha attack 0.618 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Al-Fayha xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 16:50 on Thursday 17 March 2022 at Mrsool Park.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Nassr 1 - 0 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Mrsool Park.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 49% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Nassr 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Fayha 0W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Nassr's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
49%
2.04
26%
3.81
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.45
0.97
Al-Fayha xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
6%
17.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.4 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 0.97 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Nassr come into this having played 23 games, going 13W 3D 7L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-D. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Fayha sit at 1.30 PPG from 23 outings (7W 9D 7L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Nassr's home form reads 6W 1D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fayha have taken 0.40 points per game from 10 outings (0W 4D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Fayha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Nassr are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 0.83 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Fayha in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 13W 3D 7L in their last 23 games (1.83 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 7W 9D 7L in their last 23 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Nassr's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 1.90 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.40 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Nassr have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Al-Nassr won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Al-Nassr
2
Draws
0
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 8, Al-Fayha have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Al-Fayha 1-3 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 60%, Al-Fayha 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 80% (Al-Nassr) and 20% (Al-Fayha).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Nassr's games and 50% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 80% of Al-Nassr's recent games and 20% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Nassr edge out Al-Fayha 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Fayha 1-0 at Mrsool Park, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.48 xG and Al-Fayha 0.97 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Fayha landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.20 / defence 1.39 against Al-Fayha attack 0.62 / defence 1.06, drawn from 24/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 49% | Draw 26% | Al-Fayha 25%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 65%, Al-Fayha 17%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (23 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (23 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.30. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.