Al-Nassr 0-1 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 9 as Al-Nassr welcome Al-Ettifaq to Mrsool Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 October 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Nassr have gone 4W 0D 2L from 6 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 2.17 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al-Nassr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Nassr have posted 3W 0D 1L at Mrsool Park — 2.25 PPG. They are averaging 2.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 1W 4D 3L from 8 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.88 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.25. Conceding 2.25 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 3L across 5 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Al-Nassr have the edge — a 1.12 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.88) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Al-Nassr trading profile (6 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 67%.
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (6 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Nassr 83% and Al-Ettifaq 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Nassr 83% | Al-Ettifaq 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 2.45 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.166 / defence 1.154 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.924 / defence 1.804. League average goals — home 1.163 / away 1.190. Al-Ettifaq bring a strong defensive rating of 1.804 — this is suppressing Al-Nassr's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Al-Nassr games / 8 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 62% | Draw 22% | Al-Ettifaq 17%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Ettifaq 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.72. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.72 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.45 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.72 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 75% | Al-Ettifaq 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Mrsool Park • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 62% | Draw 22% | Al-Ettifaq 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 67% | xG Al-Nassr 2.45 / Al-Ettifaq 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.166 / def 1.154 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.924 / def 1.804 | league avg home 1.163 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.45
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Al-Ettifaq xG
67%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Mrsool Park.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Nassr 0 - 1 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Mrsool Park.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 62% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 4W-0D-2L in 6 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.17 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 1W-4D-3L in 8 | 0.88 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.25 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Nassr's attack at 1.17x the league average against Al-Ettifaq's defence at 1.80x — combine the two and it projects 2.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.5%), 3-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
62%
1.62
22%
4.60
17%
5.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.6%
Draw
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.45
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
3.72
1.27
Al-Ettifaq xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
5.99
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.06
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
9%
11.55
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
1%
69.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 2.45 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.27 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 3.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Nassr's recent record stands at 4W 0D 2L from 6 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Nassr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 0W 3D 3L across 6 games — 0.50 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Nassr by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ettifaq heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Nassr have managed 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ettifaq's away record stands at 0W 1D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.17 scored and 2.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games; Al-Ettifaq in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Early Season
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 4W 0D 2L in their last 6 games (2.00 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 0W 3D 3L in their last 6 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.25 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 15 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2024, when Al-Nassr won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Nassr
3
Draws
3
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 4, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2026, when Al-Nassr 1-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Nassr at 75%, Al-Ettifaq at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Al-Nassr and 75% for Al-Ettifaq. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Ettifaq?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Al-Nassr's games and 75% of Al-Ettifaq's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Al-Nassr's matches and 75% of Al-Ettifaq's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ettifaq defy the odds to beat Al-Nassr 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al-Nassr 0-1 at Mrsool Park, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.45 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.27 xG, a combined 3.72. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Nassr fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.17 / defence 1.15 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.92 / defence 1.80, drawn from 6/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 62% | Draw 22% | Al-Ettifaq 17%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Al-Ettifaq win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 83%, Al-Ettifaq 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (6 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (6 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with Al-Ettifaq winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.