Al Najma 2-2 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hazm at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Najma vs Al-Hazm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Najma host Al-Hazm at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 May 2026 at 17:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Najma — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al Najma's home record at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hazm have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Hazm's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Hazm are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al Najma, 1 for Al-Hazm and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Jan 2026, ended 2–3 with Al-Hazm winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al Najma in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Al-Hazm in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Najma 68% and Al-Hazm 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Najma 71% | Al-Hazm 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Najma 1.37 xG and Al-Hazm 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Najma attack 0.826 / defence 1.405 | Al-Hazm attack 0.679 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.510 / away 1.448. Data: 31 Al Najma games / 31 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Najma 36% | Draw 27% | Al-Hazm 37%. Fair-value odds: Al Najma 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Hazm 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hazm are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Najma 90% | Al-Hazm 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Najma vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Najma 36% | Draw 27% | Al-Hazm 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Al Najma 1.37 / Al-Hazm 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Al Najma attack 0.826 / def 1.405 | Al-Hazm attack 0.679 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.510 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: Al-Hazm (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Al Najma xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Al-Hazm xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Najma vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al Najma vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 9 May 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Najma vs Al-Hazm?
Al Najma 2 - 2 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al Najma vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Najma vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al Najma vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Najma vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al Najma a 36% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Hazm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Najma vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al Najma and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al Najma vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Najma and Al-Hazm?
Record (1 meetings): Al Najma 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Hazm 1W.
What form are Al Najma and Al-Hazm in?
Al Najma (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Al-Hazm (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Najma's attack rating (0.83) and Al-Hazm's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Al Najma's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hazm Win
36%
2.76
27%
3.67
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Al Najma xG
Total xG
2.75
1.38
Al-Hazm xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
9%
10.97
9%
10.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.1 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Najma vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Al Najma and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Al Najma and 1.38 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Najma vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Najma's recent record stands at 2W 6D 23L from 31 games, a 0.39 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five.
Al-Hazm, meanwhile, have gone 10W 8D 13L across 31 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-W-W-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hazm by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Najma heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Najma have managed 2W 3D 10L from 15 games — 0.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hazm's away record stands at 3W 6D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hazm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Najma are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 2.32 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.10 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Najma have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Al-Hazm in 61%.
Last 31 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Najma
Current Season
Al-Hazm
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Najma and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al Najma have gone 2W 6D 23L in their last 31 games (0.39 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 10W 8D 13L in their last 31 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Najma at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Hazm's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Najma at home: 0.60 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Najma and Al-Hazm runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al Najma
1
Draws
1
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Najma and Al-Hazm?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Najma have won 0, Al-Hazm have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Najma and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Al Najma 2-2 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al Najma and Al-Hazm?
Al-Hazm have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Najma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Najma at 80%, Al-Hazm at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Al Najma and 53% for Al-Hazm. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Najma home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Najma play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Al Najma's games and 60% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Najma vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Al Najma's matches and 53% of Al-Hazm's.
Do Al Najma and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al Najma have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Najma and Al-Hazm share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Najma and Al-Hazm finished level at 2-2 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Najma 1.37 xG and Al-Hazm 1.38 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Najma attack 0.83 / defence 1.41 against Al-Hazm attack 0.68 / defence 1.10, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Najma 36% | Draw 27% | Al-Hazm 37%, with Al-Hazm to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Najma 71%, Al-Hazm 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Najma's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hazm arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.39. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Najma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.