Al Khaleej Saihat 0-1 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Al-Nassr travel to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to take on Al Khaleej Saihat. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 December 2022, 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Khaleej Saihat — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 3L across 5 games at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Nassr stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Nassr — 1.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Al Khaleej Saihat in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
Al-Nassr in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al Khaleej Saihat 30% | Al-Nassr 40%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 50% | Al-Nassr 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 0.79 xG and Al-Nassr 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.710 / defence 1.184 | Al-Nassr attack 1.436 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.135. Al Khaleej Saihat's attack strength of 0.710 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.436 — the away xG of 1.93 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 10 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 40 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 14% | Draw 22% | Al-Nassr 64%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 7.14 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Nassr 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Al Khaleej Saihat 40% | Al-Nassr 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Dec 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 14% | Draw 22% | Al-Nassr 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 47% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 0.79 / Al-Nassr 1.93 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.710 / def 1.184 | Al-Nassr attack 1.436 / def 0.813 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.93
Al-Nassr xG
47%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 31 December 2022 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr?
Al Khaleej Saihat 0 - 1 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 14% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 64% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Al-Nassr (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Khaleej Saihat's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Al-Nassr's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.79. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al Khaleej Saihat's defence, projects 1.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 12.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 1-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
14%
7.01
22%
4.61
64%
1.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.3%
Away win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
2.72
1.93
Al-Nassr xG
7.01
14%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
1.56
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
15%
6.88
46%
2.20
Win to Nil
2%
48.23
29%
3.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 12.8 | 12.3 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.93 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 10 outings, Al Khaleej Saihat have picked up 0.40 PPG on a 1W 1D 8L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr's form line: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games, 2.30 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Nassr are the form team by 1.90 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Khaleej Saihat.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Khaleej Saihat have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 0.40 PPG overall — Al Khaleej Saihat are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al-Nassr have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 away games — 2.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.40 scored and 0.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Nassr in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 1W 1D 8L in their last 10 games (0.40 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.00 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Al Khaleej Saihat or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Khaleej Saihat have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Nassr have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Mar 2026, when Al-Nassr won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Khaleej Saihat's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Al Khaleej Saihat
1
Draws
7
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 0, Al-Nassr have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat 0-5 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Khaleej Saihat see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 50%, Al-Nassr 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Al Khaleej Saihat and 75% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al-Nassr in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al-Nassr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 25% of Al-Nassr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al Khaleej Saihat's matches and 75% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Nassr edge out Al Khaleej Saihat 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al Khaleej Saihat 0-1 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 0.79 xG and Al-Nassr 1.93 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Nassr landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.71 / defence 1.18 against Al-Nassr attack 1.44 / defence 0.81, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 14% | Draw 22% | Al-Nassr 64%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 50%, Al-Nassr 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 0.40. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.