Al Khaleej Saihat 1-3 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 6 as Al Khaleej Saihat welcome Al-Fateh to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 15 September 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Khaleej Saihat stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al Khaleej Saihat have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fateh have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fateh's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Al Khaleej Saihat) versus 1.20 (Al-Fateh). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al Khaleej Saihat, 2 for Al-Fateh and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2023, ended 0–2 with Al-Fateh winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al Khaleej Saihat trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Al-Fateh trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Khaleej Saihat 43% versus Al-Fateh 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 49% | Al-Fateh 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.35 xG and Al-Fateh 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.916 / defence 1.190 | Al-Fateh attack 1.194 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.392. Data: 35 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 35 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 26% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 52%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 3.85 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Fateh 1.92. Al-Fateh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.32 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.35 / 1.98) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.32 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Khaleej Saihat 60% | Al-Fateh 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 15 Sep 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 26% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 1.35 / Al-Fateh 1.98 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.916 / def 1.190 | Al-Fateh attack 1.194 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.98
Al-Fateh xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 September 2023 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh?
Al Khaleej Saihat 1 - 3 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 26% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 52% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh?
Record (2 meetings): Al Khaleej Saihat 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Fateh 2W.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Al-Fateh (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Khaleej Saihat's attack rating (0.92) and Al-Fateh's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al Khaleej Saihat's defence, projects 1.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
26%
3.84
22%
4.59
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
3.32
1.98
Al-Fateh xG
3.84
26%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
14%
7.23
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
4%
27.78
14%
7.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.98 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Khaleej Saihat come into this having played 35 games, going 10W 6D 19L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Fateh sit at 1.46 PPG from 35 outings (15W 6D 14L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Fateh carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al Khaleej Saihat's home form reads 6W 3D 8L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fateh have taken 1.53 points per game from 17 outings (8W 2D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.69 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Early Season
Al-Fateh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 10W 6D 19L in their last 35 games (1.03 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 15W 6D 14L in their last 35 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Fateh's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.24 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Fateh have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Apr 2025, when Al-Fateh won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Khaleej Saihat's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Al Khaleej Saihat
0
Draws
6
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 2, Al-Fateh have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Al-Fateh 1-0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 53%, Al-Fateh 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Al Khaleej Saihat and 82% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al-Fateh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 53% of Al-Fateh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Al Khaleej Saihat's matches and 82% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fateh cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Khaleej Saihat.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al Khaleej Saihat 1-3 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.35 xG and Al-Fateh 1.98 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Fateh outscored their 1.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.92 / defence 1.19 against Al-Fateh attack 1.19 / defence 1.08, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 26% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 52%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 49%, Al-Fateh 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Fateh arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.