Al-Ittihad FC 3-0 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ittihad FC and Damac meet at King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 4 April 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ittihad FC have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC's home record at King Abdullah Sports City: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Damac's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.60 in Al-Ittihad FC's favour (2.60 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Al-Ittihad FC 1W, Damac 0W, 2D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Ittihad FC — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
Damac — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 41% versus Damac 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 53% | Damac 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.73 xG and Damac 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.181 / defence 0.538 | Damac attack 1.042 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.326. Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating of 0.538 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Al-Ittihad FC games / 51 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 60% | Draw 24% | Damac 15%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Damac 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 10% | Damac 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Tuesday 4 Apr 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 60% | Draw 24% | Damac 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 44% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.73 / Damac 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.181 / def 0.538 | Damac attack 1.042 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Damac xG
44%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac kicked off at 20:00 on Tuesday 4 April 2023 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac?
Al-Ittihad FC 3 - 0 Damac.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 60% chance of winning, Damac a 15% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Damac?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 1W | Draws 2 | Damac 0W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Damac in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Damac (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Ittihad FC's attack at 1.18x the league average against Damac's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Damac's attack (1.04x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (0.54x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (12.6%), 1-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
60%
1.65
24%
4.09
15%
6.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.48
0.74
Damac xG
1.65
60%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
6.63
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
18%
5.66
Win to Nil
29%
3.48
3%
37.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 10.8 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 0.74 for Damac, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ittihad FC's recent record stands at 35W 10D 6L from 51 games, a 2.25 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Damac, meanwhile, have gone 19W 15D 17L across 51 games — 1.41 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Damac heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad FC have managed 18W 4D 3L from 25 games — 2.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Damac's away record stands at 8W 6D 11L across 25 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.25 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 35W 10D 6L in their last 51 games (2.25 PPG), while Damac have gone 19W 15D 17L in their last 51 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Damac away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.32 PPG; Damac away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Damac been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their recent games, Damac in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 on 4 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Damac — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al-Ittihad FC
3
Draws
2
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Damac?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, Damac have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Damac?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 24%, Damac 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 60% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 68% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Damac?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 24% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 60% of Damac's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent games and 60% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Damac tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Damac in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ittihad FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Damac.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Damac 3-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.73 xG and Damac 0.74 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.18 / defence 0.54 against Damac attack 1.04 / defence 1.04, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 60% | Draw 24% | Damac 15%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 53%, Damac 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and duly kept one.
Damac's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.41. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.