Al-Ittihad FC 4-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City plays host to Al-Ittihad FC versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC in Pro League (matchday 21). Kick-off: Saturday 22 February 2025 at 18:15 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ittihad FC have collected 2.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Al-Ittihad FC's form when playing at home: 10W 0D 0L across their last 10 home games (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Al-Ittihad FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC away from home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Ittihad FC's 2.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's 2.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Al-Ittihad FC's last 10 home games and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Al-Ittihad FC's games and 70% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the stronger record — 5 wins to Al-Ittihad FC's 0, with 1 draw.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2024, ended Al-Ittihad FC 1–3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC — a Al-Hilal Saudi FC win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 5 of 6 H2H matches, and at 4.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Ittihad FC — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 63% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 86%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad FC 65% and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Ittihad FC 68% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 2.14 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.500 / defence 0.957 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.411 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.372. Al-Ittihad FC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.500 — their 2.14 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack rating of 1.411, which lifts their away xG to 1.85. Data: built from Al-Ittihad FC's last 54 games and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 54.
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 45% | Draw 21% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 2.21 | Draw 4.87 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.92. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS Yes probability 74% | Total xG 3.99. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.99 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% — both xG figures (2.14 / 1.85) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad FC are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Ittihad FC's last 10 home games and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 74% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Ittihad FC 80% (last 10 home games) | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 21 | Venue: Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City • Kick-off: Saturday 22 February 2025 at 18:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 45% | Draw 21% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% (Under 24%) | BTTS Yes 74% (No 26%) | xG Al-Ittihad FC 2.14 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.500 / def 0.957 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.411 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC FAQs
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 18:15 UK time on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Ittihad FC 4 - 1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 21) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 45% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 34% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Ittihad FC's attack at 1.50x the league average against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 2.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack (1.41x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.85.
These ratings are built from Al-Ittihad FC's last 54 games and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (7.8%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
45%
2.21
21%
4.87
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.3%
Draw
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
3.99
1.85
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
2.21
45%
Home win
4.87
21%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.34
26%
BTTS No
3.90
Clean Sheet
16%
6.39
12%
8.47
Win to Nil
7%
14.14
4%
24.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.85 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 3.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ittihad FC's recent record stands at 33W 7D 14L from 54 games, a 1.96 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC, meanwhile, have gone 46W 6D 2L across 54 games — 2.67 PPG, with W-L-W-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ittihad FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad FC have managed 19W 2D 6L from their last 27 home games — 2.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record stands at 21W 4D 2L across their last 27 away games, a 2.48 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.98 scored and 0.80 conceded. Al-Ittihad FC's scoring rate against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC (Home) vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC Form FAQs
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 33W 7D 14L in their last 54 games (1.96 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 46W 6D 2L in their last 54 (2.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.19 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.48 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won Al-Ittihad FC 4-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC on 22 Feb 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 1W 0D 4L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al-Hilal Saudi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Ittihad FC
2
Draws
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Ittihad FC have won 1, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-2 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 83% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 74% for Al-Ittihad FC, 63% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Al-Ittihad FC and 78% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Al-Ittihad FC's games and 63% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 78% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 89% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ittihad FC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4-1 at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 2.14 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.85 xG, a combined 3.99. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Hilal Saudi FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.50 / defence 0.96 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.41 / defence 0.95, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 45% | Draw 21% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 34%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 68%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.67 PPG against 1.96. Form was overturned, with Al-Ittihad FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.41 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.