Al-Ittihad FC 1-0 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Al-Hazm travel to King Abdullah Sports City to take on Al-Ittihad FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 3 April 2026, 17:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at King Abdullah Sports City, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Al-Ittihad FC are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hazm have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Ittihad FC 1.50 PPG, Al-Hazm 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Al-Ittihad FC have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 5 past contests while Al-Hazm have managed just 0 wins.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Ittihad FC and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Al-Hazm in-play and half-time data (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad FC 58% and Al-Hazm 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 46% | Al-Hazm 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.50 xG and Al-Hazm 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.859 / defence 0.722 | Al-Hazm attack 0.733 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.433. Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating of 0.722 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Al-Ittihad FC games / 26 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 55% | Draw 27% | Al-Hazm 19%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Hazm 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 30% | Al-Hazm 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Friday 3 Apr 2026, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 55% | Draw 27% | Al-Hazm 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 42% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.50 / Al-Hazm 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.859 / def 0.722 | Al-Hazm attack 0.733 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Al-Hazm xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 17:15 on Friday 3 April 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm?
Al-Ittihad FC 1 - 0 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 55% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 3W | Draws 2 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Al-Hazm (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Ittihad FC's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Al-Hazm's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
55%
1.83
27%
3.72
19%
5.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.26
0.76
Al-Hazm xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
5.40
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
4%
24.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 11.9 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 0.76 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ittihad FC come into this having played 26 games, going 12W 6D 8L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-L. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Hazm sit at 1.19 PPG from 26 outings (8W 7D 11L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Al-Hazm — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Ittihad FC's home form reads 8W 0D 4L across 12 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Hazm have taken 1.08 points per game from 12 outings (3W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.12 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm in 65%.
Last 26 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 12W 6D 8L in their last 26 games (1.62 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 8W 7D 11L in their last 26 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 24 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Al-Ittihad FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2022, when Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al-Hazm specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Al-Ittihad FC
2
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm?
From 7 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 3-2 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 33%, Al-Hazm 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 67% (Al-Hazm).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Ittihad FC have failed to score in 33% of games; Al-Hazm in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Hazm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 58% of Al-Hazm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent games and 67% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al-Hazm 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Hazm 1-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 27, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.50 xG and Al-Hazm 0.76 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.86 / defence 0.72 against Al-Hazm attack 0.73 / defence 1.15, drawn from 60/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 55% | Draw 27% | Al-Hazm 19%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 46%, Al-Hazm 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.