Al-Ittihad FC 1-0 Al Baten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (81%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ittihad FC face Al Baten.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Baten make the trip to King Abdullah Sports City to face Al-Ittihad FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Tuesday 23 May 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Ittihad FC's overall Pro League record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC at King Abdullah Sports City this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al Baten have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al Baten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Baten have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Ittihad FC's 2.30 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Al Baten's 1.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Ittihad FC lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2023, ended 2–1 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Al Baten half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 44% versus Al Baten 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 58% | Al Baten 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 2.62 xG and Al Baten 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.339 / defence 0.585 | Al Baten attack 0.807 / defence 1.342. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.261. Al-Ittihad FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.339 — their λ of 2.62 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al Baten bring a strong defensive rating of 1.342 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating of 0.585 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Al-Ittihad FC games / 57 Al Baten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 81% | Draw 13% | Al Baten 6%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.23 | Draw 7.69 | Al Baten 16.67. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (81%) — a 75pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad FC are the pick at 81% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 10% | Al Baten 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Baten | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 May 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 81% | Draw 13% | Al Baten 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 42% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 2.62 / Al Baten 0.59 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.339 / def 0.585 | Al Baten attack 0.807 / def 1.342 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (81%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.62
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
0.59
Al Baten xG
42%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Baten kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Baten kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 23 May 2023 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Baten?
Al-Ittihad FC 1 - 0 Al Baten.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Baten being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Baten part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Baten is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Baten?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 81% chance of winning, Al Baten a 6% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Baten?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al Baten will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Baten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Baten?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 2W | Draws 1 | Al Baten 0W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Baten in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Al Baten (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Ittihad FC's attacking strength (1.34x league average) is weighed against Al Baten's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.62. Flip it around — Al Baten's attack (0.81x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (0.58x) — and the away total comes out at 0.59.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.8%. Close behind: 3-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
81%
1.24
13%
7.56
6%
16.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.62
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
3.21
0.59
Al Baten xG
1.24
81%
Home win
7.56
13%
Draw
16.08
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
55%
1.81
7%
13.68
Win to Nil
44%
2.25
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 10.5 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.8 | 8.2 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 12.0 | 7.2 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Baten?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Baten expected to score?
The model projects 2.62 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 0.59 for Al Baten, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Baten?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 81%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Ittihad FC come into this having played 57 games, going 39W 11D 7L for 2.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Baten sit at 0.91 PPG from 57 outings (13W 13D 31L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Al Baten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.34 PPG clear of Al Baten — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Ittihad FC's home form reads 21W 4D 3L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Baten have taken 0.43 points per game from 28 outings (2W 6D 20L). That's a step down from their 0.91 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Baten's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 0.74 conceded per game recently; Al Baten are on 0.96 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al Baten
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Baten in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 39W 11D 7L in their last 57 games (2.25 PPG), while Al Baten have gone 13W 13D 31L in their last 57 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al Baten away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.39 PPG; Al Baten away: 0.43 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al Baten been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Al Baten in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ittihad FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Baten — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Al-Ittihad FC
1
Draws
0
Al Baten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Baten?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 3, Al Baten have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al Baten last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2023, when Al-Ittihad FC 1-0 Al Baten.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Baten?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Al Baten see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 43% (Al Baten) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 50% (Al Baten).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 68% of their matches; Al Baten in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al Baten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al Baten?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 43% of Al Baten's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Baten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent games and 50% of Al Baten's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al Baten tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Al Baten in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al Baten 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Baten 1-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 2.62 xG and Al Baten 0.59 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Ittihad FC fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.34 / defence 0.58 against Al Baten attack 0.81 / defence 1.34, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 81% | Draw 13% | Al Baten 6%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 81%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 58%, Al Baten 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Baten's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 0.91. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Baten (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.