Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-2 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taawon meet at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 January 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 4W 2D 2L at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium — 1.75 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
Al Taawon's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Taawon have posted 1W 3D 4L from 8 away outings — 0.75 PPG. Away from home they average 1.62 goals scored and 2.38 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.75 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Al-Hilal Saudi FC against 1.40 for Al Taawon. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Hilal Saudi FC lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2021, ended 2–1 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Hilal Saudi FC — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Al Taawon — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% and Al Taawon 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 47% | Al Taawon 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.64 xG and Al Taawon 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 0.945 / defence 1.266 | Al Taawon attack 0.999 / defence 1.553. League average goals — home 1.115 / away 1.171. Al Taawon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.553 — this is suppressing Al-Hilal Saudi FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 16 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 41% | Draw 25% | Al Taawon 34%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Al Taawon 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 38% | Al Taawon 88% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jan 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 41% | Draw 25% | Al Taawon 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.64 / Al Taawon 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 0.945 / def 1.266 | Al Taawon attack 0.999 / def 1.553 | league avg home 1.115 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Al Taawon xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 15 January 2022 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3 - 2 Al Taawon.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 41% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taawon?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1W | Draws 0 | Al Taawon 0W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taawon in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Al Taawon (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Al Taawon's defensive record (1.55x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. Flip it around — Al Taawon's attack (1.00x) against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 15/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
41%
2.45
25%
4.00
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
3.12
1.48
Al Taawon xG
2.45
41%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
9%
10.76
7%
15.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.7 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.48 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 15 outings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 7W 6D 2L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon's form line: 4W 4D 7L from 15 games, 1.07 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-W. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Taawon.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 1.57 PPG from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L).
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 1W 2D 4L from 7 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.60 scored and 1.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Al Taawon in 80%.
Last 15 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 7W 6D 2L in their last 15 games (1.80 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 4W 4D 7L in their last 15 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al Taawon away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 1.57 PPG; Al Taawon away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-4 on 10 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2
Draws
1
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taawon?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, Al Taawon have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-2 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taawon?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 43%, Al Taawon 86% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 43% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 86% for Al Taawon. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 71% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Al-Hilal Saudi FC have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al Taawon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's games and 86% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 86% of Al Taawon's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Hilal Saudi FC edge out Al Taawon 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Taawon 3-2 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.64 xG and Al Taawon 1.48 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.27 against Al Taawon attack 1.00 / defence 1.55, drawn from 15/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 41% | Draw 25% | Al Taawon 34%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 47%, Al Taawon 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Taawon's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.