Al-Hazm 2-1 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Damac at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hazm vs Damac encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Damac travel to Al-Hazem Club Stadium to take on Al-Hazm. The game is scheduled for Monday 26 January 2026, 15:20 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hazm stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm's home record at Al-Hazem Club Stadium: 1W 1D 5L from 7 Pro League appearances (0.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 2.43 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.57 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Al-Hazem Club Stadium this season.
Across all Pro League games this season, Damac have recorded 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Damac have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Al-Hazm) versus 0.90 (Damac). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Damac, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Al-Hazm.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Damac have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Al-Hazm in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Damac in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hazm 62% and Damac 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 62% | Damac 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.36 xG and Damac 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.802 / defence 1.565 | Damac attack 0.765 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.470. Data: 16 Al-Hazm games / 50 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 29% | Draw 26% | Damac 46%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Damac 2.17. Damac hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Damac at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Damac offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 57% | Damac 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 26 Jan 2026, 15:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 29% | Draw 26% | Damac 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Al-Hazm 1.36 / Damac 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.802 / def 1.565 | Damac attack 0.765 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.470 • Poisson stance: Damac (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Damac xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Damac kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Damac kicked off at 15:20 on Monday 26 January 2026 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Damac?
Al-Hazm 2 - 1 Damac.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Damac part of?
Al-Hazm vs Damac is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 29% chance of winning, Damac a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al-Hazm and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Damac?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Hazm 0W | Draws 2 | Damac 3W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Damac in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Damac (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Hazm's attack rating (0.80) and Damac's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Damac's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
29%
3.49
26%
3.92
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
3.12
1.76
Damac xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
17%
5.81
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
5%
20.31
12%
8.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.8 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.6 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 1.76 for Damac, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Hazm's recent record stands at 4W 5D 7L from 16 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Damac, meanwhile, have gone 1W 8D 7L across 16 games — 0.69 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Hazm on 1.06 PPG, Damac on 0.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Hazm have managed 1W 1D 5L from 7 games — 0.57 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.06 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Damac's away record stands at 1W 4D 2L across 7 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Damac come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hazm are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 0.81 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Damac in 75%.
Last 16 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 4W 5D 7L in their last 16 games (1.06 PPG), while Damac have gone 1W 8D 7L in their last 16 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Damac away?
Damac's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 0.57 PPG; Damac away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2023, when Damac won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hazm's record when hosting Damac specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al-Hazm
2
Draws
3
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Damac?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 1, Damac have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Al-Hazm 2-1 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Damac?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 57%, Damac 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Al-Hazm) and 29% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Damac?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Al-Hazm's games and 71% of Damac's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hazm vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Al-Hazm's recent games and 29% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hazm and Damac tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Damac in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Hazm defy the odds to beat Damac 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hazm beat Damac 2-1 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.36 xG and Damac 1.76 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.80 / defence 1.56 against Damac attack 0.77 / defence 1.11, drawn from 16/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 29% | Draw 26% | Damac 46%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Al-Hazm win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 62%, Damac 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Damac's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Hazm 1.06 PPG, Damac 0.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Hazm win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.