Al-Hazm 0-1 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Al-Ittihad FC travel to Ar-Rass Stadium to take on Al-Hazm. The game is scheduled for Thursday 28 October 2021, 16:05 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hazm stand at 2W 4D 3L from 9 Pro League matches — 1.11 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.22 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm at Ar-Rass Stadium this season: 1W 4D 0L from 5 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 5W 2D 2L from 9 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.89 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC away from home this season: 2W 1D 1L from 4 away games — 1.75 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Ittihad FC are 0.78 PPG ahead (1.89 vs 1.11), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Hazm register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 75% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Al-Hazm trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 33% versus Al-Ittihad FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Hazm 22% | Al-Ittihad FC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.13 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.941 / defence 1.106 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.018 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.132 / away 1.186. Data: 9 Al-Hazm games / 9 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 30% | Draw 30% | Al-Ittihad FC 40%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 60% | Al-Ittihad FC 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Ar-Rass Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Oct 2021, 16:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 30% | Draw 30% | Al-Ittihad FC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Hazm 1.13 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.941 / def 1.106 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.018 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.132 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Al-Ittihad FC xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 16:05 on Thursday 28 October 2021 at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Hazm 0 - 1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 30% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 2W-4D-3L in 9 | 1.11 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.22 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 5W-2D-2L in 9 | 1.89 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.89 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Hazm's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad FC's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
30%
3.32
30%
3.35
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
2.46
1.34
Al-Ittihad FC xG
3.32
30%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
8%
12.62
13%
7.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.4 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 1.34 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 9 outings, Al-Hazm have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 2W 4D 3L record — W-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC's form line: 5W 2D 2L from 9 games, 1.89 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-L. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ittihad FC are the form team by 0.78 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Hazm.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Hazm have posted 1.50 PPG from 4 outings (1W 3D 0L).
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al-Hazm are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 2.00 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 2W 4D 3L in their last 9 games (1.11 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 5W 2D 2L in their last 9 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 1.50 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Al-Hazm or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hazm have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2022, when Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hazm's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al-Hazm
2
Draws
4
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 0, Al-Ittihad FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 1-0 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 50%, Al-Ittihad FC 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Al-Hazm) and 50% (Al-Ittihad FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al-Hazm's games and 75% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Al-Hazm's recent games and 50% of Al-Ittihad FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al-Hazm 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Hazm 0-1 at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.13 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.34 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Hazm fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.94 / defence 1.11 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.02 / defence 1.06, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 30% | Draw 30% | Al-Ittihad FC 40%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 22%, Al-Ittihad FC 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.11. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.